Bloomberg have been out and about with the clipboard quizzing 55 economists about Europe’s economy, and there’s none too much positivity floating about.

  • Q3 2014 y/y GDP gets cut to 1.0% from 1.1% prior, q/q unchanged at 0.3%
  • Q4 2014 y/y 1.0% vs 1.2% prior, q/q 0.4% vs 0.3% prior
  • Q1 2015 y/y 1.2% vs 1.3% prior, q/q 0.4% unch
  • Average 2014 GDP 1.0% unch, 2015 1.5% unch, 2016 1.6% unch

The inflation outlook has also had a haircut.

  • Q3 2014 y/y CPI 0.5% vs 0.6% prior
  • Q4 0.8% vs 0.9% prior
  • Q1 2015 1.0% vs 1.1% prior
  • Average CPI 2014 0.6% vs 0.7% prior, 2015 1.2% unch, 2016 1.5% unch

Employment is expected to improve slightly by 0.1 points per qtr averaging 11.3% from 11.4 2014 & 10.9% from 11.2% 2015 and interest rates are expected to remain at 0.15% through 2014/2015.

I should think the ECB would pay to have some of those numbers the way Europe is heading at the moment, so much so that they probably will, starting with the TLTRO’s and possible QE.