I get the feeling that the market is getting far too wound up over Jackson Hole with everyone positioning and primed to make a move. Is it all getting a bit much?
SocGen were out yesterday saying that the pound should be sold as an even remotely hawkish Yellen will have a big impact.
Today they say that we should go long the euro as a dovish message today would see decent short term covering of euros until the sellers step in at higher levels. They advise taking a long on any dips for a target of 1.3500
Yesterday Adam noted that much of the money may be sitting on the sidelines waiting for the headlines before making a move ,rather than positioning ahead of it.
What we can be certain of is that it’s going to be very choppy but is it going to lead prices to pastures new.
So far Janet has been pretty plain and boring with her appearances. We know Bernanke liked to drop the odd bomb here and there but Yellen just seems to want to play it by the book. It might just be the way she is so early into the job and this will be her first Jackson Hole event as Fed chair.
Until I actually get something shocking from her I’m keeping the thought that she’s just going to be boring old Janet who just wants to get on with the job in hand and has no interest in grandstanding.
The market may run around like its hair is on fire later on but I’ll just be kicking back and looking at the levels I want to get in at.
Prepare for the unexpected but expect the expected
