The RBA decision is the major event in Asia-Pacific trading and the Australian dollar is near the top of its recent range as the 0430 GMT (0030 ET) decision looms.
The Australian dollar has been one of the best performers over the past two months as RBA Governor Glenn Stevens shifted to a neutral stance from dovish. No economists are calling for a hike in the day ahead and the OIS market is saying the same thing. Further out, the OIS market prices about a 30% chance of a cut in the next 12 months.
The statement will likely continue to lament a high Australian dollar without hinting at action that could help to weaken it.
Technically, a break of the August double top at 0.9375 would clear the way to 0.9475 or 0.9500.
AUDUSD daily ahead of RBA decision
The bulk of sellers will be clustered around the 100 and 55-day moving averages along with the August highs. A disappointing statement would spark a rush to cover longs and the move would likely be greater than anything to the upside. There’s no great bias in the techs but there’s a bias to the downside and better value is likely to be found among sellers.
