We’ve got Q2 GDP coming up today at 0130GMT:
- expected is +0.4% q/q, prior was +1.1%
- expected is +3.0% y/y, prior was +3.5%
Expectations have been revised higher this week following business indicator and ba;lance of payments data. I had some info on the revisions posted yesterday.
Via a client note from Deutsche Bank:
- Increased their Q2 GDP forecast to 0.5% q/q and 3.1% y/y from their prior forecast of 0.4%
- “This reflects a modestly smaller detraction from net exports to GDP(E) apparent from today’s BOP release (-0.9ppt versus our pick of a 1.1ppts contraction) coupled with a modest upside to our estimate for GDP(P) following the business indicators release yesterday”
Macquarie:
- have hugely bumped up their GDP forecast to +0.5% q/q (+3.1% y/y)
- … they were previously at estimates for a Q2 contraction of -0.1% q/q (+2.5% y/y)
CBA:
- Q2 GDP forecast is now up to +0.6% q/q
- Was a 0.3% to 0.5% range previously
- For the y/y, forecast is +3.2%
- “Dwelling construction, household consumption and a lift in inventories will make positive contributions to growth. Net exports and government spending will be a drag on Q2 growth”
Westpac:
- “We have left our forecast at 0.4%qtr, 3.0%yr, with offsetting surprises today
- The RBA will not be surprised by a 0.4% print for Q2. In their August Statement on Monetary Policy growth was forecast to be 3.0%yr in June 2014, implying a 0.4% increase in Q2.
- For further detail see our preview bulletin from Friday.
- Nominal GDP: We have upgraded our forecast for nominal GDP growth from a decline of –0.2% qtr to flat, with the fall in the terms of trade not as large as anticipated, coming in at -4.1% vs Westpac f/c of around -5%.
Moody’s:
- Forecasting +0.1% q/q, +2.7% y/y
- Previously was -0.1% & +2.5%
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Meanwhile … the AUD suffered yesterday as the USD surged (“About time” is what I imagine Glenn Stevens is thinking). It still looks heavy.
