This is a piece from MNI. I am not sure if they have published on the web, but here are the main points from it (its worth reading in full if you can access it). Boldings are mine:

  • ECB President Mario Draghi signalled in his Jackson Hole speech on August 22 that the Bank is moving closer to ABS purchases – fuelled speculation over an eventual QE programme
  • Draghi’s remarks suggest he’s ready … sooner rather than later
  • But it isn’t clear yet to what extent the Governing Council shares his concerns on growth and inflation (there has been an absence of comments from other policymakers)
  • Months of ABS purchase plan preparations – which according to Draghi are now “fast moving forward” – suggest the Council may be ready to commit to a programme Thursday
  • But … with the limited size of the ABS market in Europe, may render it insufficient
  • A Eurosystem source told MNI that “it is often a good policy to positively surprise the market and do a little bit more than is expected, not dramatic, but exceeding expectations.”
  • One possibility for such a surprise would be for the ECB to expand the programme to include other private assets such as corporate bonds
  • A Thursday agreement on QE that includes government bonds still appears premature
  • Investors will closely monitor Draghi’s rhetoric to gauge whether the Governing Council is moving closer to the QE option
  • Following consistently weaker-than-expected data on both growth and inflation that continues to challenge the Bank’s baseline scenario, a notable change in Draghi’s introductory statement can certainly be expected and the Governing Council is likely to paint an even gloomier picture of euro area prospects
  • Instead of “moderate and uneven” the Council may describe the recovery as “uniformly weak”, mirroring Draghi’s Jackson Hole speech
  • On inflation, the Council can no longer point to well-anchored expectations inevitable downward revision of 2014
  • ECB staff forecasts for HICP and GDP, the more relevant medium-term inflation outlook will likely be a key focus of the question-and-answer session of Draghi’s press conference
  • Staff forecasts for 2016 may remain largely unchanged, benefitting from more favourable underlying assumptions – especially on the exchange rate. But how much comfort can the Council take from such forecasts when declining inflation expectations can quickly spark a downward spiral?

Article title is:

The European Central Bank is set to significantly shift its rhetoric
May announce additional easing measures

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More ECB previews here: