Now that the US Retail Sales and Import Price data is out of the way (no great surprises vs. expectations), the 9:55/10 AM releases, weekend squaring flows and any rumblings about the Scottish vote (see most recent poll HERE) will likely dominate. Just a reminder, the weekend has the potential to have a surprise one way or the other regarding polls and weekend press out. So adjust positions accordingly (Event Risk is high).
GBPSUD has a bunch of resistance above and the 100 hour MA (blue line) below.
For the week, the pair gapped to the downside from Friday’s levels and has never threatened the closing level from a week ago (at 1.63288 area).
Today the low from last Friday was nearly touched with a high at 1.62753 and last Friday’s low at 1.62788. CLOSE but no cigar.
Looking at the hourly chart, the 38.2% of the move down from September high to the September low comes in at 1.62766. The 200 hour MA (green line in the chart above) comes in at 1.6278 (and moving lower). So there is “your amount” of resistance against the 1.6275-78 area.
On the downside, the 1.6163 level is the 100 hour MA and any move to new lows would look toward this area.
Being in between, I would rather be a patient bystander. If you are a gambler, flip a coin because that is what the price action is telling me today and with weekend risk at high levels, the flows from the ebbs and flows will likely dominate.
