Philly Fed arch-hawk Charles Plosser announced today that he’s retiring in March. Earlier this year, equally hawkish Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher announced his retirement.
The two Fed dissenters retiring at nearly the same time looks dovish and no one would be blamed for pushing their rate hike forecasts out another month or two.
But the pattern in the past is that regional Fed offices pick their own Presidents (although the Fed Governors could block them) from people with similar views. That means there is generally continuity of thinking.
The most-recent hawks to leave were Thomas Hoenig in Kansas City and Bill Poole in St Louis. Both were replaced by hawks in George and Bullard. On the dovish side, Williams replaced Yellen.
Maybe what we should be considering is if the Fed considers a slightly earlier hike or a signal of an imminent hike, in March or April, as a parting gift to Plosser and Fisher but at this point it’s too early to say.
