The Bank of Japan (BOJ) Q3 Tankan results are at that link, and there is more here BOJ Tankan: Japan Corporate Sentiment Improves
Capital Economics have their take on it:
- The sharp deterioration in business conditions in the non-manufacturing sector in today’s Tankan suggests that output may have shrunk yet again in the third quarter
- Following a decline in the second quarter in the wake of April’s consumption tax hike, the headline index of business conditions for large manufacturers in the Q3 Tankan survey edged up from +12 to +13, above the Bloomberg median of +10
- However, this upside surprise was overshadowed by a pronounced deterioration in business conditions in the non-manufacturing sector
- The index for large firms fell by another 6 points to +13, the sharpest decline since Q2 2011
- The change in the Tankan rather than its level has traditionally provided the best guidance about the pace of expansion of Japan’s economy
- On that basis, the fall in the all industry index for large firms of 3 points suggests that the economy may have contracted yet again in third quarter
- The outlook doesn’t suggest a rapid recovery, either. Large manufacturers expect conditions to remain unchanged this quarter, while large firms in the non-manufacturing sector predict a small improvement of 1 point
