I posted up a little earlier on the adjustment to be made to Australian employment figures for July and August.
But I am seeing HEAPS of comments around the place questioning what it means for those past figures …. but its all there in my post: Australian Bureau of Statistics to change seasonal adjustment of monthly labour force estimates
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OK, let me summarise it:
- The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has decided that for these months (July, August and September) there will be NO SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT
That’s is, the “original’ figure is the final figure …. and I had these in the original post … to repeat:
- The ABS reported original employment rose 32,100 in August, compared to seasonally adjusted increase of 121,000
Got that? The SA figure was 121,000, the original was 32,100 – WHAT THAT MEANS is the figure is down by 88,900
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OK, for JULY:
- ABS reported original employment fell 11,900 in July, compared to seasonally adjusted fall of 4,100
So – the August figure is in effect +7800 better.
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Net over those two months – the Employment figures is much lower, by 81,100
What’s this gonna mean for the unemployment rate?
If there have been less jobs created than thought, then the rate has gotta go up, right?
Now, given one of the reasons to buy the AUD has been the improvement (albeit slow) in the economy as evidenced by the increasing employment numbers …. well …. they’re just about to evaporate for the last 2 months ….. what does this mean for the AUD? Looks like a sell to me (USD moves notwithstanding).
OK, here is one thing that’s not in doubt … tomorrow’s release is going to be a doozy. If you’ve got a live grenade to toss around the house, that might be slightly safer than the AUD tomorrow
