Over the weekend, I did a VIDEO preview for the EURUSD titled “Technical Analysis for the EURUSD: Monday will tell the story“.
The thesis was focused on how the price of the EURUSD has positioned itself between two technical chart levels. The bottom was the 50% of the move up from the October 10th low and the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart below). That area of support was centered around the 1.2743.
The topside technical level was against some highs and lows from last week’s trading and the 38.2% of the move up from the October 10 low. That level was centered around the 1.2776-80 area.
The EURUSD still remains within the box, with resistance at 1.2776-80 and support at 1.2743-48.
How has the story been told so far today?
The price has seen an attempt to move below the 50% and the 100 hour MA (currently at 1.2748) at the 1.2743 area. That break saw the price of the EURUSD extend to a low of 1.2730. That move was quickly reversed. The high was then targeted and there was a move above the 1.2776-80 resistance area. The high reached 1.2788 and it too failed and reversed back lower. Traders looking for a break and momentum (myself included) have been frustrated.
That is the bad news.
The good news is that the story is not over. The same dynamics are in play. We are still looking for the momentum break of either extreme. The pair can go either way. The box (as outlined by the technical levels) will be broken and when done, traders will look for more momentum in the direction of the break. It is a matter of being patient.
The final chapter is yet to be written. Be aware. Be prepared.
