As per the prior post (Forex Technical Analysis: EURUSD looking like the top is set), the EURUSD indeed found earlier sellers against the 100 hour MA (the high got up to 1.2774 with the 100 hour MA at the 1.2784) and risk level was not breached at the MA level. Shorts in control.

EURUSD hourly chart.  Stays below 100 hour MA. Ceiling at the high for the day holds.

EURUSD hourly chart. Stays below 100 hour MA. Ceiling at the high for the day holds.

The price moved lower with an extension lower below the 50%. The extension has taken the price through the 200 hour MA (green line at 1.27304) and got close to the next target at the 61.8% at 1.27106 (low reached 1.27154). The range is now 125 pips. The average trading range is 113 pips over the last 22 trading days. The work to the downside is likely done for today, but the trading bias remains bearish for the pair.

Where is the risk now?

The 100 hour MA can still be a risk level for shorts who are short from above or comfortable risking that much (do not risk more than 2-3% at most).

What I feel is the high reached today was right against a ceiling, and that ceiling held. The buyers had their shot to take it higher and they failed. Now with the price moving below the 100 hour MA (and staying below) that becomes the new ceiling now. The price should not trade above this level, if the “top is set”.

Is there closer risk, or is there a level that traders might look to get short (if that is your preference)?

Looking at the 5 minute chart below, the 100 bar MA (declining and currently at the 12750 level) is the close resistance level that I would expect sellers on a test. Above that, patient sellers can use the 38.2% at the 1.27627. If the sellers that have trended the price down today, still love it, there should be sellers in this area.

If new lows are made, adjust the Fibonacci lower.

Close risk can be against the 100 bar MA or the 38.2% of the days range.

Close risk can be against the 100 bar MA or the 38.2% of the days range.

Where are the next targets?

The low from last Thursday came in at 1.2704. Below that 1.2677 and then 1.2660. The 1.2660 level is the low from November 2011.