The Bank of Canada decision will be released at the top of the hour. I wrote a full preview of what to expect from the BOC and I’m more focused on the forecasts than on the statement.

Near-term inflation forecasts will almost certainly be hiked but there’s some risk that longer-term forecasts could be lowered and I think that’s where the market will be focused. If so, it could push USD/CAD back above 1.1300.

USD/CAD has made several forays above that mark in the past week but hasn’t been able to hold it.

USDCAD daily

USDCAD daily

The momentum is definitely to the upside after a softish retail sales report earlier. For a more detailed look at the levels, check out Greg’s latest USD/CAD video.