The EURUSD rebounded in trading today after better than expected Markit PMI data (Composite at 52.2 vs estimate of 51.5 and 52.0 last month). The levels remain low (the low for the last 12 months is at 51.7, the high is 54.0) but at least the change was to the upside. From a technical analysis perspective, the price based against the lows reached last week and extended to the underside of the broken trend line (we broke and held below the level yesterday). That level comes in at 1.2676 and will be a risk defining level for sellers now.

The EURUSD found support against the lows from last week (and Oct 10). The high found sellers against the underside of the trend line.

The EURUSD found support against the lows from last week (and Oct 10). The high found sellers against the underside of the trend line.

The close from yesterday and the 50% of the days trading range come in at 1.2648 and 1.26444 respectively (see 5 minute chart below). A move below those levels will help the sellers cause. The 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart come in at 1.2651 and 1.2646 respectively. So there is a bunch of intraday support in the 1.2644-51 area to get below.

EURUSD has some intraday support to get below.  Could be a challenge.

EURUSD has some intraday support to get below. Could be a challenge.

Despite the run up today, and the short term bias more bullish above the cluster of support, and the pair finding buyers near the recent lows(see hourly), I gotta be more bearish on the pair overall. I like the idea the underside of the trend line held – staying below will keep traders focused on the downside. However, if there is a move above the broken trend line at the 1.2676 level, the sellers from yesterday, and from earlier in the week (when the 100 hour MA was being pierced on Tuesday), may look to cover/take profit and look for a higher level to sell. Right now all is ok with the hope for a break below the 1.2644 support low.