Preview of the US durable goods orders report due Tuesday at 8:30 am ET (1230 GMT)

The durable goods numbers have not been a reliable metric for growth of late as they are very open to big swings in the components.

Last month we reversed July’s 22.5% gain with an 18.2% loss, all because of a record skew in in aircraft orders. I like my data to tell me a story and it’s hard to find one in these numbers.

US durable goods to August 2014

US durable goods to August 2014

Equally, the capital goods orders (non-defence ex-air) numbers have made for volatile reading and August’s number was revised down to 0.4% from 0.6% for the month, but it’s in the annual numbers that there might be a chink of light.

US durable goods cap goods orders non def ex air y/y

US durable goods cap goods orders non def ex air y/y

Generally the trend has been moving up and it’s been the upswings in this, and the other broad measures like shipments, that have helped to shape GDP over the quarters.

I’d like to see the numbers come in strong to confirm that we could see some strength in the sector adding to the economy but as the data is so linked to manufacturing it’s hard to see that happening given the slippage we’ve seen both last month and this.

Trading wise we should maybe set expectations to the “disappointment” setting. The market is looking for a jump of just 0.5% compared to that 18.4% drop last month in the headline, and a rise to 0.7% from 0.4% in the cap goods component. What we may need to do is not get sucked into these number exclusively but should look at what it means for GDP which is being released on Thursday. While the headline could miss either way by a big margin we’ll need to look in depth to see if GDP could be adversely affected as that will drive the bigger move and direction in prices.

On top of that we’ve also got the FOMC to contend with and again, a big change in the numbers will give ammo to the hawks and the doves as they sit down for day one.