A majority of the FOMC members are skeptical, or a least cautious, about the recovery. They’re carefully guarding against not being burned by a false start.
The key metric in today’s data is durable goods orders non-defense excluding aircraft, it’s a proxy for business investment and a leading indicator. The four month average remains at 1% but that doesn’t tell the whole story. The past three months have averaged -0.5% and with the hiccup in markets in October, another weak report might be due.
Durable goods orders non-def ex-air w 4 month MA
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