The AUDUSD – like most of the currency pairs in the NY session – is chopping around in post employment trading. In reality, since the sharp fall on Wednesday, the price for the AUDUSD has been consolidating in up and down trading.
This consolidation has allowed the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart below) to catch up toward the price. This will be a technical level that will likely “be in play” in early trading next week and should force the market to decide which way it wants to go.
At the highs this week on Wednesday, the price held that MA (see blue circle 3 in the chart below) and that helped contribute to the sharp fall lower.
Will the sellers continue to keep the price below that MA at the now lower levels? That will be one of the technical clues (and risk defining levels) in trading likely next week. Also near the MA level is the 38.2-50% of the move down this week at the 0.86244-0.86505 area (yellow area). Needless to say, this area should define the bias going forward and can also be used by traders to define and limit risk.
On the downside, the 0.8587 is the midpoint of the days trading range today. If the price moves below this level, the there may be some additional reversal of the move higher today.
AUDUSD moves toward resistance area as the week moves toward the close. Next week will likely test the selling bias.
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