October 2014 US non-farm payrolls report highlights:

  • Prior reading was 248K (revised to 256K)
  • Unemployment rate 5.8% vs 5.9% exp
  • Prior unemployment rate was 5.9%
  • Participation rate 62.8% vs 62.7% prior
  • Two month net revision: +31K
  • Private payrolls 209K
  • Prior private payrolls was 236K (revised to 244K)
  • Underemployment U6 11.5% vs 11.8% prior
  • Avg hourly earnings 0.1% m/m vs 0.2% exp
  • Avg hourly earnings 2.0% y/y vs 2.1% y/y exp
  • Avg weekly hours 34.6 vs 34.6 exp

The quick drop in USD/JPY down to 114.66 from 115.36 shows how markets were leaning towards a strong number while the quick bounce back to 114.98 shows how the details of the report are better than the headline.

The market is overly stuck on the main reading but with revisions and everything else, there’s a lot of good news here. Unemployment, in particular, fell to a cycle low even as the participation rate rose. The wage inflation metrics remain sluggish, however.

net change in nonfarm payrolls

net change in nonfarm payrolls