Here we are. It is Thursday and the EURUSD has a 115 trading range for the week so far which is near the low trading ranges seen since volatility picked up in August/September. Something more normal for a calendar week is around 198 or so pips. As I like to say, there is room to roam (i.e. to extend above the high or below the low).

The range for the EURUSD is very narrow this week at 115 pips. THere is room to extend the range.

The range for the EURUSD is very narrow this week at 115 pips. THere is room to extend the range.

Looking at the hourly chart, the 100 and 200 hour MA lines (blue and green lines) are starting to converge (at 1.2447 and 1.2465 respectively). On the downside, there is a nice trend line connecting the weeks lows. That line currently comes in at the 1.2437 level.

The hourly chart is showing a touch higher bias with topside trend line at the 1.2485 area the next level to break.

The hourly chart is showing a touch higher bias with topside trend line at the 1.2485 area the next level to break.

Above the best topside trend line connects the high from last Thursday. The level comes in at the 1.2485 level.

The “market” is not sure of the next move. It says that with the price action this week. The good news is it will eventually make a choice and push higher or lower and the technical levels in the way will be checked off.

What is the bias now?

For the bulls:

  1. The price is above lower trend line at 1.2437
  2. The price is above the 100 hour MA at 1.24477
  3. The price is above the Nov 3 lows at 1.2438 and also the Nov 5 low at 1.24573
  4. The price is above the 200 hour MA at the 1.2465

For the bears:

  1. The price is trading below the topside trend line at the 1.2485 level.

So the buyers are more in control. On a break higher above the topside trend line at the 1.2485 level (it is currently testing the level as I type), the 1.2500 level (low from October 3rd), the 1.2508 high for the week. The 38.2% of the move down from the October 29th high at the 1.25147 are the next close targets to get and stay above. A move above those levels and the market will start to look toward the 50% at 1.25634.

If the move higher fails, the downside levels will be revisited with a break of the lower trend line opening the door for further downside moves toward the lows for the year.