I’ve been speaking to some pals in some of the big banks in the City to see what the gossip is on the SNB.
There are rumors of $1 billion in bids at 1.2010.
Most of the non/small-fx trading room chatter is that the bids from 1.2015 down to the 1.2000 cap are official. FX traders at the big Swiss banks are under virtual lockdown and there’s not even a gnats fart escaping as far as news on actual levels and orders.
What is coming out is that the SNB is said to be keeping very quiet and there is no hint of what their strategy might be when dealing with a move to the 1.20 cap (apart from the obvious). Many are citing Thomas Jordan as the big unknown in all this as he’s still the new boy and an unknown quantity in this intervention game. That’s compared to old hand and ex SNB head Philipp Hildebrand who traders got a feel for when he put the cap in place, or else asked his wife what was going on
While we talk of leaks in markets this is something that will be kept very tight in Swiss trading circles as the SNB will be a massive customer and not one you would want to piss off.
Unfortunately that means that we’re restricted to news and analysis from the people inside banks that are separated by ‘Chinese walls ‘ from their FX teams, and general rumours.
As for who is selling, there’s general chatter that there’s some Russian selling going on and that might have some legs with things hotting up again in Ukraine as money looks to find a home outside of Russia. Take that with a pinch of salt at the moment though as it is just gossip.
No one knows what he’s up to
