Forex news for New York trading on November 19, 2014:
- FOMC minutes: Officials saw need to watch for falling inflation expectations
- Full text of the FOMC minutes
- Poll shows support slipping in Swiss gold referendum
- Unexpected build hits US oil market
- Abe now plans to cut the same tax he delivered
- Goldman Sach’s Hatzius sees the global recovery improving in 2015
- HSBC says SNB will stand firm on cap even if gold vote goes against them
- Gold down $14 to $1184
- WTI flat at $74.61
- S&P 500 down 6 points to 2045
- GBP leads, AUD lags
The lesson today was to watch out for Swiss referendum polls. A quick fall in gold and a jump in EUR/CHF to 1.2026 followed one of the first real polls on the referendum. It showed little chance of it passing but there was additional confusion as news wires had differing headlines.
The FOMC minutes were over-hyped and we didn’t really learn anything new. The Fed was cautious, as usual and the initial kneejerk was lower in the US dollar across the board. I’m not sure how much the headlines even mattered because there is a big portion of the market that will buy US dollar dips no matter what.
Cable benefited from the MPC minutes earlier but finishes US trading near where it started. The session high of 1.5721 came after the minutes but it faded back to 1.5675.
The commodity block was under some decent pressure as yesterday’s momentum continued. AUD/USD sank a full cent on the day to the lowest since Nov 14. A bounce to 0.8650 quickly faded but 0.8600 is holding so far.
USD/CAD chopped sideways despite considerable talk about topside offers and options below. The blip on the minutes took the pair to 1.1312 but it later rebounded to a session high of 1.1359.
Gold fell $20 in seconds on the first referendum poll headlines. The market was quicker than the newswires on the news so traders are watching very closely. The drop was eventually erased and gold bounced back to $1200 but it the sellers later returned — there’s just no way that referendum wins — and gold finishes on the back foot at $1184.
