Canadian retail sales numbers for October are due at 8:30 am ET (1330 GMT) on Tuesday. The Canadian dollar has been at the mercy of economic data this month and that is likely to continue with the report.
Canadian retail sales chart
Retail sales are expected to rebound 0.5% in Oct after a 0.3% decline in September that was the worst fall this year. Excluding autos, sales are forecast to climb 0.3%.
But economists have struggled to forecast Canadian economic data recently and that has led to some large moves in the Canadian dollar.
Canadian dollar volatility on economic data in Nov
In general, economic data has been stronger and that’s why the loonie has been the second-best performer in November after the New Zealand dollar.
What’s the trade?
I think the USD/CAD trade is a good, old-fashioned headline trade. There has been follow-through on the all the Canadian dollar trades on economic data this month. If it’s strong or weak, get on board and hang on for the ride.
But if you’re trading USD/CAD on retail sales, also be aware that US Q3 GDP will be released at the same time.
