• US situation a big factor in oil price drop
  • Low cost OPEC producers trying to maintain market share
  • Suspects ECB is heading the way of QE
  • Germany needs to let its demand grow
  • China overexpanded credit in response to recession, particularly in real-estate
  • Japan’s Kuroda putting foot on accelerator was a good move
  • Japan’s economic stumble is serious but what they are doing is appropriate
  • Global economy is not the main driver of US economy
  • If jobs improve and inflation is up it’s natural to raise rates
  • US economy still not returned to a normal situation
  • Productivity growth is way way down and that is what is driving slower growth
  • Fed closer to getting rid of “considerable time” language
  • If inflation heads lower Fed will keep rates at near zero
  • Fed can’t give precise dates, will rely on data
  • We don’t want to surprise markets
  • Fed will provide guidance after “considerable time” removed
  • Fed does not think US is seeing a housing bubble

No real definition on “near zero” still leaves the door open to rate hikes