In the new trading day (at 7:30 PM ET), the Australia GDP for 3Q will be released with the expectations for 0.7% increase vs 0.5% in the 2Q. YoY is expected to rise by 3.1% which is the same rate from 2Q. The graphs below show the trends in the GDP from a QoQ basis and YoY.

Trends in Australia GDP

Trends in Australia GDP

China Non Manufacturing PMI will be released at 8 PM ET . In October, the index came in at 53.8. Finally at 8:45 PM ET, a separate private services PMI put out by HSBC will be released. Below are the historical trends of those series and component trends of the Non-Manufacturing PMI data. Each piece of data has the potential to move the market. As a result, risk is increased (i.e, market risk, event risk and liquidity risk will be at high levels).

If you do not have a position already (and hopefully in the black too), I would suggest waiting until at least some of the news is out. There is a chance that the GDP reaction (whether higher or lower) will wait for the “to come” China news. So be aware. Watch the price action and technical levels. Other traders, including yourselves are feeling the same anxiety about the data. When that happens, there is a tendency to follow the clues from the charts.

China PMI Trends

China PMI Trends

So what may those technical levels be?

For the AUDUSD, today has seen the price give back most of the gains from yesterday. From a technical perspective, the rally yesterday and into the RBA interest rate decision today, stalled just above what was a topside resistance area at the 0.85329 to 0.85398. The high reached 0.85416 before reversing and trending lower.

For the NY session, the price action has wandered sideways above the lows from yesterday. However, the price has also been able to stay below the low from November 26th at 0.8479, and the Asian session low today at the 0.84675

A move above this area (>0.84675-79) on stronger data today, will be step 1 in a potential bullish road to recovery.

The next key levels on a topside move, would come against the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart above) which currently comes in at the 0.8507 level and topside trend line resistance at the 0.8515 level. The 0.8540 low from November 7th and high from today at 0.8541, and 200 hour MA at 0.8555 (green line in the chart above), will also be targets to get and stay above. The burden of proof is for the buyers to show they can take back control. Until these levels are taken out – one at a time, the sellers really are the aggressors still.

On the downside, the targets will be the lows from yesterday and the bottom trend line. Yesterday that trend line held like a charm, and the corrective short covering rally ensued. I have to think with 4 points on the trend line, it will attract some attention – at least on the first look.

The levels to eye through the economic data in the new trading day.

The levels to eye through the economic data in the new trading day.

What is the longer term chart telling us?

Looking at the weekly chart below, the 50% of the move up from the 2008 low to the 2011 high comes in at 0.85423. This was just below the high for today and makes that level a key level on any rally. Get above it, and more traders might be thinking a bigger move higher is possible.

On the downside, the 0.8361 is channel trend line support (see chart below). With the lower trend line on the hourly chart at the 0.8371, the area increases in importance on the downside today.

Below that, the low from June/July 2010 at 0.8316 is in play over the next 24 hours of trading if the bears trend the market lower.

Further out, the low from May 2010 at 0.8066 and the 61.8% at 0.79437 would be eyed if the ball to the downside gets rolling.

AUDUSD weekly chart has a support and resistance level in play today.

AUDUSD weekly chart has a support and resistance level in play today.