USD/CAD broke above 1.1500 today to a five-year high and technically there is very little resistance on the chart, at least until the 61.8% retracement of the 2009-2011 range at 1.1668 and the 2009 blip at 1.1725.

USDCAD technical analysis

USDCAD technical analysis

I like those as targets while buying on a retest of 1.15 with a narrow stop. There isn’t any talk of corporate sellers until 1.16 so the momentum could get running.

The downside is that it’s hard to find a great driver so if it doesn’t happen by the end of this week or Monday then it’s probably best to get back on the sidelines. Poloz should take a look at falling commodities/inflation and emerging market growth and shift to dovish but he’s blindly optimistic so that won’t boost the pair.

The Fed might get the message on low inflation next week — or at least the market could worry about it early in the week — and that might hurt the US dollar.