Good news is hard to trade these days in USD/JPY
From the lows the Abe victory was worth around 125 pips if you got in at the bottom and it didn’t take that long to evaporate.
Aside from the last crazy NFP, trading US and Japanese news and data has been difficult as gains are either small or dissipate quickly.
Here’s the poll I ran last week on where USD/JPY would be after the vote.
USD/JPY Abe vote poll
The most important thing to take from the poll os the sentiment towards the pair. A lot of us are expecting to see decent moves on big events. May it be wishful thinking or a reflection of our positions, it doesn’t matter. What matters is that we are expecting things that aren’t really being delivered.
If we know that time and time again we’re being let down then maybe we need to adjust our expectations. If you’re trading long term then these events are just noise. If you’re trading short term then these moves matter. For the short term maybe the best play is a short after the data/event (dependant on what it is)? Let the market run it up and sell it against recent and decent levels.
Long term you may not want to fight the trend but short term the two way action is offering plenty of opportunities.
