In the last Non farm payrolls release for 2014 the market’s finest swing their hammers on the numbers for today.
The current rankings stand as follows;
- Nariman Behravesh – IHS Global
- Westbury/Stein – First Trust
- Scott Brown – Raymond James
- N/A – Intesa Sanpaolo
- Harm Bandholz – Unicredit
Here’s their numbers for today and performance over the year.
NFP pickers 09 01 2015
As for today’s numbers, The market is looking for a more modest 240k compared to the 321k prior.
NFP estimates 09 01 2015
I highlighted yesterday that I’m looking for signs of consolidation in USD/JPY and that looks to be further confirmed today given we’ve had another slide from near 120.00 overnight.
If we are around current levels come the release then I’ll be looking to fade a good number to 120.00. There’s a stronger level at 120.65/70 but that’s probably a stretch too far.
USD/JPY H4 chart 09 01 2015
That’s going to be my main play on an upward surprise (unless it comes in something stupid like 500k+). For a downward move the low 118’s from 118.40 looks to be a reasonable point to fade a bad number. My only concern is that if we are seeing a top come in then we have scope for a larger move down before establishing the bottom of the range.
Whatever happens the price action will dictate how to play it so roll on 13.30 gmt.
