A piece in the Wall Street Journal (gated) argues that the risk of an accidental Greek exit from the euro “is real”.

In brief (bolding mine):

  • Greece’s current bailout program with the European Commission, the ECB and International Monetary Fund— “the Troika”— expires at the end of February
  • Whoever wins the election (January 25) will need to secure a further extension to buy time to negotiate the long-term deal with the Troika that has eluded current PM Samaras
  • A further bailout extension is essential partly because Greece must repay €1.5 billion ($1.77 billion) to the IMF in March and faces further debt redemptions over the coming months
  • Without a deal with the Troika either to release ear-marked bailout funds or to boost its borrowing, Greece might soon find itself forced to default on its debt
  • The ECB requires Greece to be in compliance with an agreed bailout program as a condition of the substantial support it is currently providing to the country’s banking system. If the ECB refused to continue to fund the banks, the government would have to issue its own currency to prevent the economy imploding and Greece would be out of the euro.

The article is here, but it is gated: ‘Grexit’ could happen by accident