Voters don’t like change.
The best recent example is the Scottish referendum. Polls showed a close race but on voting day about 3% of the vote swung toward the status quo and there was no drama in the result.
That’s not the case in every election but with Syriza promising some radical changes, it’s more like a referendum than a ho-hum choice. Even when there is little to separate the parties on the economy — like Republicans and Democrats — you often see the status quo get a bump on election day.
Going into election day, I believe Syriza needs to show a 4 or 5 point lead in the polls to win. A poll just released showed them steady and ahead by 4.5 percentage points. If they start to crest 5%, look for a fresh round of unease.
