Comments from 4 analysts, via Euromoney

Bolding is mine.

Geoffrey Yu, G10 FX strategist at UBS:

  • Says even if Greece does leave the euro “it won’t lead to wider break-up risk and we believe the contagion effect will be limited”
  • Believes the significance of any departure from the single currency cannot be measured in economic terms alone
  • Says Grexit would show the euro is not irrevocable, contradicting the European Central Bank and eurozone politicians who have spent considerable time and capital seeking to assure markets it is. “That means much more for the concept of the euro rather than simple market/economic fundamentals”
  • “Despite Syriza support, poll after poll show overwhelming public support for the euro to remain the currency of Greece, so both sides will try to reach a negotiated settlement.”

Kit Juckes, global strategist at Société Générale:

  • “Grexit would be very bad for the euro, but only if it were contagious across European markets”

Nicholas Ebisch, analyst at Caxton FX,:

  • “The value of the single currency is upheld by faith that the EU will stay together, and Greece exiting the euro will weaken the perception that there is value in the single economic bloc”
  • Says if Greece were to leave it would be “the dynamite that starts the landslide for the eventual destruction of the euro”
  • But, Grexit itself “is seen as very unlikely, as it would mean disaster for the single currency and would destabilize the eurozone economy, which is already struggling with a low rate of growth. The EU would be expected to keep Greece in the euro by any means necessary, should a situation arise during which Greece threatens to leave.”

Petr Krpata, FX strategist at ING:

  • “During the first round of eurozone existential crisis in 2010, the break-up risk premium built into EUR/ USD was close to 10% and we would not be surprised to see a similar magnitude of the risk premium should Grexit become above a 50% probability”
  • “Although one can rightly argue that the likes of Italy, Spain and Portugal are in better shape than in 2012, we doubt these assets, as well as European equities, would remain unchallenged should the probability of a Grexit rise materially.”
  • “The Greek-related risk looks to be so far contained to Greek assets, rather than being a source of contagion.”

I posted some of the weekend news from Greece earlier: