HSBC is out with a note saying that any pop in the euro on the ECB not announcing QE is only delaying the inevitable.
“It has become more a question of when rather than whether…The simple reality is that even if the ECB were to disappoint by not delivering QE in some shape or form, the market would assume that the central bank is merely delaying the inevitable. Any rally in EUR on such inaction by the ECB would likely be sold into swiftly,”
Even with the fact that they see QE very much priced in and the short side positioning becoming very stretched, they still see EUR/USD lower by the end of the month and are looking for it to challenge the 2005 lows at 1.1640
UBS will be one such bunny waiting to load up on the ECB sitting on their hands next week as they look for higher levels to enter shorts.
In USD/JPY they say to go short at 119.30, eyeing support at 117.40 & 117.00 before a key level at 115.50
In the aussie they want to buy dips below 0.8140 with a stop at 0.8035 and target Monday’s highs as their profit point
For more details and further bank trades check out EFX
