Comments from JP Morgan strategists on Greece:

  • Say the chances of Greece leaving the eurozone are low
  • But, even if they do “the region has come far enough since the heights of the crisis to withstand a Greek euro exit intact”
  • A Grexit would be “a shock to confidence and growth”, but “we would not expect others to follow a Greek euro exit”

On the EUR/USD:

  • “Greece’s hypothetical EMU exit with firewalls implies a decline to $1.05, assuming the ECB balance sheet might expand to E4 trillion to stem contagion and the Fed is tightening at that time”

On bonds:

  • “Intra-EMU spreads to widen significantly in the period around the Greek exit but no loss of market access for the large peripheral countries”