The AUDUSD has been doing some up and down laps in trading today as traders debate what the next move might be for the pair.

The pair has most recently fallen below the 200 hour MA for the 1st time in the London session. A lower trend line at 0.8165 currently may be a stall point though. We will know more if the line can be broken, or conversly if the price is able to close back above the 200 hour MA.

Earlier today (Asian session), the price did break below the 200 hour MA and failed. China GDP gave the pair a bit of a boost, but the rally could not be sustained above the trend line (green circles) and 100 hour MA (blue MA line). Hence the lap nature of the market action today. Traders are taking it up and down, and up and down.

Can the break stay below the 200 hour MA and extend to and through the trend line? If so, the journey lower is not necessarily over. Last week, the Australian employment (see:Australia reported largest two-month gain in jobs since late 2006. Are the numbers believable?) sent the price sharply higher. Then the SNB decision pushed the price to a low of 0.8149. Earlier today, the low got to 0.8159. Are traders drawing a line in the sand against that area with the employment strength still in their minds? Could be, but a break might open up the downside for further selling.

PS For what it is worth, Citi’s trade of the week has the AUD/USD to 0.8000.

AUDUSD hourly chart.

AUDUSD hourly chart.

pp