Preview of the ECB decision on January 22, 2015 at 1245 GMT (7:45 am ET). The press conference is 45 minutes later.

A trio of leaks ahead of Thursday’s European Central Bank decision have stolen the element of surprise from policymakers but they may still deliver an enormous QE package that weighs on the euro.

Leaks to Bloomberg, the WSJ and Reuters all say the ECB executive board has proposed bond buys of 50 billion per month starting from March. Where they differ is that only Bloomberg’s source said the bond buys would run through 2016. The other other reports only talk about 50 billion per month at least through 2015 or they’re ambiguous.If buying is through 2016, that would mean a 1.1 trillion euro tally, much larger than the 500 billion that’s been floated around markets.Proposal by the Executive Board

They key thing that has been overlooked in early reports is that this is being framed as a proposal by the Executive Board. That’s Draghi, Constancio, Coeure, Lautenschlager, Mersch and Praet. There are 3 hawks in that group and it’s insightful that they’re making a presentation as a united front.

The ECB executive board - Team QE

The ECB executive board – Team QE

In the past, Coeure, Mersch and Lautenschlager have all spoke against QE. If they’re on board with 50 billion euros of buying a month, it’s unlikely the proposal will be watered down.

Other hawks have also fallen to the wayside in recent days. A main one is Nowotny, who earlier said Q1 was too soon for QE but last week called it a traditional central bank instrument and said the inflation outlook is significantly below goal. He also said “it would make sense to come to a decision rather earlier than later.” Another holdout was Knot but he also seemed to concede in his latest comments.

Add it up and it looks like Weidmann (and perhaps Liikanen) will be isolated. On the other side, some of the national central bank governors may balance that out with even more aggressive pitches for buying.

Risk sharing a key question

The big unknown that remains is how the risk will be shared. If the ECB does the buying it shares the risk across the eurozone. If the national central banks are left in change (which other leaks show is the most likely scenario) then it fragments eurozone unity and may also make it possible for a holdout like the Bundesbank not to buy. That would be a negative for the euro.

Another question is how much of each country’s debt to buy. Greece is likely to be excluded because of its low debt rating. Overall, the more of the low-quality debt that’s purchased, the more the euro is likely to fall.

Euro reaction

This isn’t a straight-forward decision and there is very little scope for the ECB to surprise after the leaks. To me, the leaks should have been a reason to sell the euro but it’s hardly lower. It means that traders are looking to take profits on euro shorts rather than plowing new money into an already-crowded trade.

A further upside risk for the euro would be if the Bundesbank finds a way out of bond buying. That might not necessarily come along with the announcement so there is headline risk there and in the hours afterwards. The German bund market is very tentative today and it suggests they might not be buying German bonds.

On the downside, a larger program or commitment to buying 50 million euros through 2016 is still mildly negative. An open-ended program could go either way unless it has a minimum commitment but if Draghi says anything along the lines of ‘whatever it takes’ the euro will fall because this time it’s not an existential crisis but a deflation crisis.