Australia data …

National Australia Bank business confidence for December, 2

  • prior was 1
  • … Wow! A doubling in business confidence (yeah, I am joking, K?)
  • Commodity price declines impacting confidence in the mining sector
  • Oil price falls positive impact on transport and utilities

National Australia Bank business conditions for December, 4

  • Prior was 5
  • Down for a 2nd consecutive month
  • All three components of business conditions fell on the month (sales, profits and employment)
  • Deterioration in mining and construction was particularly strong
  • The trend result for conditions is being impacted by an abnormally strong result for October, which will drop out in the January reading

  • Confidence and conditions remain below the long-run average
  • Forward orders fell back significantly
  • The bellwether wholesale industries continue to lag
  • AUD falls negative impact on importers ( … D’uh)

Comments from NAB:

  • the result shows “a patchwork economy with little-to-no momentum building”
  • “The trend in confidence is clearly down and at relatively soft levels”
  • “The higher than expected budget deficit in the Government’s MYEFO did not seem to have a big impact on confidence”
  • NAB keeps its forecast of two RBA cuts (March and August)
  • But adds the cuts could start later, depending on economic data

AUD a little lower after the data:

aud 2 27 January 2015