Forex News | Currency News by Forexlive

From VPRC:

• Syriza 28.5%
• ND 26%
• Pasok 12.5%
• Independent Greeks 7%
• Democratic Left 7%
• Golden Dawn 5.5%
• KKE 5%

The Democratic Left will align with Syriza and with the bonus for first place, that puts them awfully close to majority territory.

h/t @YanniKouts

• In return for a 90% stake

Trying to shore up systemic confidence in Spanish banks with the big injection, apparently.

Not a surprise…

I’m sure they are just for medical isotopes…

• IAEA says uranium enriched to higher level than earlier reported

Oil consolidating around $91…

–Congressional Budget Office: Fiscal Cliff Could Lead To ’13 Recession
–CBO: Renewing Current Policies Would Impose ‘Substantial’ Econ Costs
–Senate Majority Leader Reid Says Sequestration Fix Must Include Revs
–Senate GOP Hammers Dems Over Defense Cuts; Pelosi Floats Tax Cut Plan

By John Shaw

WASHINGTON (MNI) – Congress received another grim warning this week
about the consequences of the U.S. plunging over the so-called fiscal
cliff at the end of the year, while Senate Democrats and Republicans
continued to squabble about the coming sequestration process.

The Congressional Budget Office said this week that the combined
effects of the expiration of the Bush era tax cuts at the end of 2012
and the scheduled imposition of across-the-board spending cuts in
January of 2013 could shove the U.S. into a mild recession in the first
half of next year.

The CBO said allowing the tax cuts to expire and spending cuts to
take hold would reduce the federal budget deficit by $607 billion, or 4%
of gross domestic product, between fiscal years 2012 and 2013.

This immediate fiscal consolidation, the CBO argued, would slow the
economy.

“The economic outcomes that CBO expects, under current law, for the
first half of 2013 strongly resembles mild recessions that occurred in
the past,” the CBO said.

The CBO said under current policies (tax cuts expire and spending
cuts go forward), real GDP would increase by 0.5% in 2013. But in the
first half of the year the American economy would contract by 1.3%.

The CBO outlined the “difficult trade-offs” for policymakers as
they consider future fiscal policy. On the one hand, CBO noted that
postponing indefinitely or cancelling the scheduled fiscal tightening
would “lead to a greater accumulation of government debt and might raise
doubts about whether longer-term deficit would ultimately take effect.”

But the CBO observed that allowing deep tax increases and spending
cuts to go forward immediately would “represent an added drag on the
weak economic expansion.”

While the CBO does not offer policy recommendations, its review of
the options confronting lawmakers suggests a substantial and specific
deficit reduction package that is phased-in gradually is the most
reasonable approach.

“Although there are trade-offs in choosing when policy changes to
reduce future deficits should take effect, there are important benefits
and few apparent costs from deciding quickly what those changes will
be,” the CBO paper said.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a budget watchdog
group, responded to the CBO report by urging policymakers to divert from
the fiscal cliff by enacting a comprehensive deficit reduction plan.

“Instead of going over the fiscal cliff or allowing an ever growing
mountain of debt, we should rise to the challenge and enact a
comprehensive plan with more targeted and thoughtfully crafted
measures,” said Maya MacGuineas, president of the budget group.

“A smart debt reduction plan put in place this year would reassure
businesses, markets and individuals that the country can indeed control
its rising debt — a move that would surely be a boon to confidence. But
we must act now, even if it is an election year,” she said.

Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad told MNI this week
that while Congress remains deadlocked on major fiscal issues, there is
“very active, very intense behind-the-scenes bipartisan work” occurring
to assemble a major deficit reduction package based on the
Simpson-Bowles deficit reduction plan.

“Things are pretty quiet on the surface up here (in Congress), but
beneath the surface there is a lot of careful, detailed and intense
working occurring on a deficit reduction package, involving people from
both parties,” Conrad said.

Conrad said meetings to assemble, draft, and score a major deficit
reduction package are underway, adding that he would like to move
forward with the package “as soon as possible.

But he added that it’s not very likely that such a package could
move in Congress before the election.

“I think we all know the kind of plan we need to pass and pass very
soon. But I can’t tell you that there is sufficient support up here to
pass it now. The mood must change. But things do change. Events happen.
The situation in Europe worsens. We want to be ready if there is an
opportunity,” Conrad said.

Conrad said he is working with lawmakers both within the Senate
Budget Committee and in informal groups such as the “Gang of Six” to
develop a deficit reduction package.

“This is incredibly detailed, difficult work. It takes months and
months of careful preparation to be ready with a plan. Some of us are
determined to be ready pretty soon with a plan. We hope the political
moment comes that allows us to move the package,” he said.

“Both parties must move together on this. That’s the only way it
can happen,” he said.

The Simpson-Bowles plan calls for more than $4 trillion in deficit
reduction over a decade, with spending cuts and tax increases. It would
reduce spending to about 22% of GDP by 2022 and bring revenues up to
about 21% of GDP in 2022.

While private budget talks go forward, Democratic and Republican
congressional leaders continue to spar publicly.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid repeated this week that he would
be willing to alter the across-the-board spending cuts that are
scheduled to begin in January of 2013 with a “balanced approach to
fiscal policy that combines smart spending cuts with revenue measures
that ask millionaires and big corporations to pay their fair share.”

In a letter to Senate Republicans, Reid said election-year politics
will make it very unlikely for Congress to “reach this sort of balanced
agreement before the election.”

A number of Senate Republicans said this week that the scheduled
spending cuts would hit defense very deeply and endanger national
security.

More than two dozen Senate Republicans introduced legislation this
week that would require the Obama administration to tell Congress how it
would implement the automatic cuts to government agencies, including the
Pentagon.

Finally, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi sent a letter to House
Speaker John Boehner this week calling for an immediate House vote to
extend the Bush-era tax cuts on those with incomes of less than $1
million.

Pelosi’s $1 million threshold for extending the Bush tax cuts
differs from President Obama’s call to extend them for those making less
than $250,000.

** MNI Washington Bureau: (202) 371-2121 **

[TOPICS: M$U$$$,MFU$$$,MCU$$$]

The 1.2500 barrier option that Jamie pointed out was broken and the subsequent corrective move higher took the price above the 38.2% -50% of the trend move down (see chart above).  That move above the 50% took some steam out the trend move and although the price has since rotated back down, the 1.2514 area (low from yesterday) may give cause for pause.

What the move back down does do for the longer term bears is it keeps them happy and comfortable.  It may not be a trend type day down (one of the pre holiday steam rolling variety) but there is no need to panic either.  The London/Europe last hour of trading is taking place and this can lead to squaring up swings.  Then we can likely expect real quiet trading conditions for the rest of the trading day.

Looks like some fix-related selling in cable to wrap up the week in London as the pound falls below the 61.8% retracement of the 1.5236/1.6310 range seen so far in 2014.

1.5646 is the 61.8% retracement of that range, so a close below that level tonight would add to the bearish backdrop.

Bids are seen on dips to the 1.5600/20 area, some said to protect 1.5600 barriers.

-Adds Detail To Version Transmitted At 1253 GMT

LONDON (MNI) – Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member
Martin Weale has said that the UK could withstand the impact of
a Greek exit from the Eurozone and that domestic economic weakness and
the need for inflation credibility pose a dilemma for policy setting.

In a BBC Radio 4 interview Weale said he had to weigh the weakness
of the real economy, which points to the need for more stimulus, against
the risks of MPC losing credibility if it loosens policy further when
inflation is still running well above target.

The minutes of the May MPC meeting revealed several members thought
the decision was finely balanced, and in his BBC interview Weale saw
both side of the policy argument.

The latest CPI reading showed inflation falling to 3%, but the MPC
does not expect further declines in coming months.

“Should I think that, maybe, confidence in the belief that the Bank
is aiming for an inflation target of 2% will dwindle if inflation stays
where it is and we appear to give further support to the economy or
should I think, which is very definitely the case, that the real economy
is very weak and seen in its own terms that might merit support,” Weale
said.

“So, those two opposing forces illustrate the sort of things we
have to trade off when we come to making our decisions,” he added.

He downplayed the significance of the lowering of the official Q1
GDP estimate to -0.3% on the quarter from -0.2%, saying these data
merely confirmed the economy has contracted slightly and “over a longer
period it has been flatlining or tending down slightly.”

Weale noted he had previously said the growth data were supportive
of the case for more quantitative easing, but “nevertheless the
inflation rate is 3% rather than 2% and it has been above target for
quite a long time and our job is to deliver inflation close to target of
2%.”

Asked about the impact on the UK economy if Greece exits the euro,
Weale was sanguine.

“I’m sure we can withstand it, if you look back, even over the last
100 years the British economy and the United Kingdom has withstood quite
a lot and come out with an economy for all its problems at the moment is
delivering living standards much higher than people would have thought
of 50 years ago,” he said.

–London Bureau; +20 7862 7491; wwilkes@marketnews.com
drobinson@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$$BE$]

Last week, Spanish yields touched 6.37%. Today we’re at 6.34%, a sign that stress remains very high.

Spreads over German bunds are at their widest in euro-era history, at 4.95%

The central government is dealing with major systemic issues in the banking system as well as the closure of financial markets to the semi-autonomous regional governments.

The mounting Spanish problems are potentially exponentially more difficult for the euro area to deal with than anything Greece can through at them…

Looks like Mr. Market has finally figured out that consumer confidence is a crock…

EUR/USD has dipped back to 1.2525 after a pop to 1.2548 after the data while AUD has reversed its gains to 0.9795-ish and now trades below 0.9775.

By Kasra Kangarloo

WASHINGTON (MNI) – The week ahead will be jam-packed with
market-moving data, all in the span of four days, following the long
holiday-weekend in the United States.

Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by a respectable 150,000 over
the month of May, a range that has lately been the fallback estimate for
the Street, given the kind of limbo that has overtaken the jobs market.

A mix of contradictory factors, including volatile gas prices,
strengthening consumer confidence and spending, as well as economic
uncertainty regarding the eurozone have all made for a very confusing
picture.

But there are a couple reasons for optimism this time around, and
maybe even some risk to the upside: gas prices have notably receded over
the past month, with crude futures hovering just over $90 a barrel;
initial jobless claims have also leveled out around 370,000 — a range
that’s historically consistent with strong job growth.

The May nonfarm payrolls report will be released Friday at 8:30
a.m. ET. Other jobs data for the week include the May ADP private
payrolls report Wednesday at 8:15 a.m. ET, initial jobless claims
Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET and the Challenger job cuts report Thursday at
7:30 a.m. ET.

The second estimate of first quarter GDP, to be released Thursday
at 8:30 a.m., could contain a few unpleasant surprises. The trade
balance report in March, which generally has the most pull on the first
GDP revision, was more or less in line with estimates. Durable goods
orders, however, came in well below forecasts for the quarter, and are
expected to drag down the headline figure.

The Institute of Supply Managers’ manufacturing index for May will
round out the week’s big news, released Friday at 10:00 a.m. ET. The
index is expected to fall slightly, though similar expectations for the
past few months have seen upside surprises.

The MNI Chicago purchasing managers index, to be released the day
before at 9:45 a.m. ET, is considered the most closely-linked of the
regional indicators to the national index, though it’s actually expected
to rise a point.

The auto industry is one of the more confounding sectors in the
broader economy, showing a level of strength that has defied analysts’
estimates again and again this year. A combination of ageing products
and inexplicable consumer confidence have fuelled the industry’s
rebound, a trend that is expected to continue in May.

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index, another metric
that has been confusingly strong over the past few months, is expected
to rise slightly in the May report, most likely due to tempered gas
prices heading into the summer driving season.

May Consumer confidence will be released Tuesday at 10:00 a.m. ET.

The two pieces of housing data to be released will likely be
overshadowed by the rest of the week’s data, although they could contain
a few surprises. Both the Case-Shiller home price index and the pending
home sales index are expected to be roughly unchanged over the month.

While nobody expects housing prices to rise from the dead anytime
soon, pending home sales have made a refreshing comeback.

Other data to be released over the week include April personal
consumption and income Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, April construction
spending Friday at 10:00 a.m. ET, and the Mortgage Bankers Association
mortgage applications index Wednesday at 7:00 a.m. ET.

Federal Reserve speeches for the week are listed below:

Dallas Federal Reserve president Richard Fisher will speak on the
economy in Texas Wednesday at 1:20 p.m. ET.

New York Federal Reserve president William Dudley will speak on the
regional economy in New York Wednesday at 1:30 p.m. ET.

Boston Federal Reserve president Eric Rosengren will speak in
Massachusetts Wednesday at 4:30 p.m. ET.

Cleveland Federal Reserve president Sandra Pianalto will speak on
monetary policy and the economic outlook in Ohio Thursday at 8:00 a.m.
ET.

–Kasra Kangarloo is a reporter for Need to Know News

** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **

[TOPICS: M$$FI$,M$U$$$,MAUDS$]

• <
• 1
• ...
• 3
• 4
• 5
• 6
• 7
• ...
• 9227
• >