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Van Rompuy says EU to tell G20 that Greece should stay in euro

The EU has published a letter European Council President Van Rompuy regarding the G20 meeting in June. It says Greece should stay in the euro and respect its commitments.

He should have addressed it to the Greek voters.

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By   || May 25, 2012 at 19:53 GMT
Category: All, Americas, Mkt Talk, Regions || Tags: , , || 0 comments || Add comment

CFTC: Euro shorts hit fresh record

In the Commitments of Traders report:

  • EUR short 195K vs 174K last week
  • JPY short 18K vs 34K prior
  • AUD shorts to short 17K from long 5K
  • CHF short 35K vs 27K
  • CAD long 39K vs 51K
  • GBP long 11K vs 25K
  • NZD shifts to short 1.5K from long 2.5K

First AUD net short since Jan 2011. Overall a broad move to USD and JPY, as you would expect.

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By   || May 25, 2012 at 19:35 GMT
Category: All, Americas, Mkt Talk, Regions || Tags: , , , || 7 comments || Add comment

Stocks limping into the weekend

The S&P 500 has fallen to a session low, down 6 points to 1314. Risk assets are following it lower.

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By   || May 25, 2012 at 19:26 GMT
Category: All, Americas, Mkt Talk, Regions || Tags: , || 2 comments || Add comment

Starting to get very quiet

Jamie has gone fishing, along with the rest of the market. It’s a long weekend in the US, so Monday will be quiet aside from the tape bombs out of the periphery.

Gold has found some life, climbing to $1572. The resistance main level to watch is $1600/04 but yesterday’s high of $1577 is also significant.

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By   || May 25, 2012 at 18:16 GMT
Category: All, Americas, Mkt Talk, Regions || Tags: || 9 comments || Add comment

USD/CAD breaks 1.03, housing in focus

The touted barriers that were protecting 1.03 in USD/CAD gave way as liquidity thins out.

Worries about the Canadian house price market ebbed on today’s data from CREA that showed a 0.8% rise but the details show Vancouver could be in for a rough ride. I would argue that the Bank of Canada is less likely to hike with house prices falling there.


Corporate offers up to 1.0360 lurk but the hourly trendline I showed yesterday continues to provide support.

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By   || May 25, 2012 at 17:38 GMT
Category: All, Americas, Mkt Talk, Regions || Tags: , , || 0 comments || Add comment

S&P cuts 5 Spanish banks

Banco Popular among the victims, not so popular now is it? Bankia cut to junk. Bankinter, Banca Civica and Banco Financiero y de Aborros the other victims

Banco Santander affirmed, BBVA affirmed but on review with a negative outlook, Caixabank on watch negative.

Classic S&P, they cut Bankia to junk after the government takes over 90% of the bank. Minor blip down in EUR/USD but the affirmations of the bigger banks help to balance out the downgrades.

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By   || May 25, 2012 at 16:53 GMT
Category: All, Americas, Mkt Talk, Regions || Tags: || 0 comments || Add comment

EUR/CHF back into the danger zone

Strange days in EUR/CHF with rumor central yesterday and then some large purchases from a UK clearer overnight. Pulses are thumping a bit faster with the pair down to a low of 1.2006.

I find it hard to believe that someone with an inside tip about SNB action on the weekend would be so foolhardy as to buy billions of dollars at once, moving the market when patient buys would get better fills.

The chart shows downward momentum but it puts the market back where it was early on Thursday so nothing has really changed.

If you think there is a spec of truth in the rumors, it’s better to be long.But here is why I wouldn’t be: if the SNB did have plans for weekend action, they would be shelving them right now because of the the perception they were leaked. After the Mrs. Hildebrand fiasco, they can’t have any more questions.

Shorts still don’t make sense to me in the near term. The peg is hugely popular in Switzerland and they don’t seem to care about the cost. In the longer-term shorts may start to make sense in a euro-breakup panic… but there will be lots of way to make money with that scenario.

 

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By   || May 25, 2012 at 16:52 GMT
Category: All, Americas, Featured, Mkt Talk, Regions || Tags: , , , , , , || 9 comments || Add comment

Spanish growth negative, you don’t say!

S&P says Spain is entering a double-dip recession, according to DJ.

The consensus growth estimate for 2012 is -1.50% so the ratings agency is not breaking any new ground here, as usual.

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By   || May 25, 2012 at 16:44 GMT
Category: All, Americas, Mkt Talk, Regions || Tags: , , || 0 comments || Add comment

The latest Greek poll

From VPRC:

  • Syriza 28.5%
  • ND 26%
  • Pasok 12.5%
  • Independent Greeks 7%
  • Democratic Left 7%
  • Golden Dawn 5.5%
  • KKE 5%

The Democratic Left will align with Syriza and with the bonus for first place, that puts them awfully close to majority territory.

h/t @YanniKouts

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By   || May 25, 2012 at 16:19 GMT
Category: All, Americas, Mkt Talk, Regions || Tags: , , || 3 comments || Add comment

Cable probing below 61.8% retracement of the 2012 range

Looks like some fix-related selling in cable to wrap up the week in London as the pound falls below the 61.8% retracement of the 1.5236/1.6310 range seen so far in 2014.

1.5646 is the 61.8% retracement of that range, so a close below that level tonight would add to the bearish backdrop.

Bids are seen on dips to the 1.5600/20 area, some said to protect 1.5600 barriers.

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By   || May 25, 2012 at 15:05 GMT
Category: All, Americas, Mkt Talk, Regions || Tags: || 2 comments || Add comment

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