Am I the only one who thinks Hilsenrath has lost his edge since Yellen took charge? Anyway, he’s out with his post-NFP write up in the WSJ. He notes that the report fits with Yellen’s narrative of people coming into … Continue reading
Fed fears soothed by middling jobs report, flat wages What the hawks believed: Wage inflation is closer than believed because most of the people who have left the workforce aren’t coming back. What Yellen and the doves believed: The improving … Continue reading
Doesn’t sound that demanding for the hawkish Fisher still exercising his jaw on CNBC there’s only so much monetary policy can do doesn’t agree that the Fed should let inflation rise help push unemployment down should not tolerate inflation over … Continue reading
I just want your gut reactions here: Trade ideas welcome in the comments.
The Fed definitely gets some economic data ahead of time. The transcripts of the crisis-era FOMC meetings showed this but not necessarily non-farm payrolls. The next main event on the economic calendar is Friday’s non-farm payrolls. Did the Fed members … Continue reading
The US dollar has given back all or most of the post-GDP gains against the euro, pound and commodity block.
The most hawkish part of the FOMC statement: Inflation has moved somewhat closer to the Committee’s longer-run objective. The least hawkish: A range of labor market indicators suggests that there remains significant underutilization of labor resources. The hawks wanted … Continue reading
Full text of the July 29 FOMC decision: Release Date: July 30, 2014 For immediate release Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that growth in economic activity rebounded in the second quarter. Labor market … Continue reading
Highlights of the July 29, 2014 FOMC decision: Odds of persistent sub-2% inflation ‘diminished somewhat’ Inflation has moved somewhat “closer” to long-run objective; previous statement had said it was “running below” objective Removed reference to unemployment rate being elevated Repeats … Continue reading
Watch out for a change in the part of the statement that says rates will stay low for “a considerable time” after the taper ends or an upgrade in inflation. That’s unlikely but the US dollar may still rally on … Continue reading