Lockhart is a more dovish Fed member but his thinking usually lines up with Yellen, Dudley and some other core members of the FOMC. Q2 growth confirms that Q1 was an outlier but it’s too early to conclude that faster … Continue reading
When is the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium? This year it takes place from August 21 to August 23. The schedule will be released Aug 21 but might leak out early. The Jackson Hole event is often a time when the … Continue reading
Will the Fed hike in May? Or July? Or September 2015? Who cares. Unless you’re trading some kind of calendar spread it doesn’t make that much of a difference. I’m reminded of a quote from former St. Louis Fed President … Continue reading
Marketwatch has a good feature showing when each of the 17 Fed members expect the first rate hike.
The July-October period is easily the worst time of year for USD/JPY. August is the second-worst month for the pair since 2005 and is also a soft month in the longer-term. What could cause the dollar to sell off and … Continue reading
Last week we had the FOMC, this week we get a lot more. A really quick look at whats coming up this week: European Central Bank On Thursday we get the latest from Draghi and the ECB. Will low inflation … Continue reading
Am I the only one who thinks Hilsenrath has lost his edge since Yellen took charge? Anyway, he’s out with his post-NFP write up in the WSJ. He notes that the report fits with Yellen’s narrative of people coming into … Continue reading
Fed fears soothed by middling jobs report, flat wages What the hawks believed: Wage inflation is closer than believed because most of the people who have left the workforce aren’t coming back. What Yellen and the doves believed: The improving … Continue reading
Doesn’t sound that demanding for the hawkish Fisher still exercising his jaw on CNBC there’s only so much monetary policy can do doesn’t agree that the Fed should let inflation rise help push unemployment down should not tolerate inflation over … Continue reading
I just want your gut reactions here: Trade ideas welcome in the comments.