It’s only my take on stuff, but I mentioned earlier today that the looming BA strike could provide a potential brake for a cable slide.
In effect, the strike could also act as a buffer with regard to the current state of play in the UK.
Perverse thinking, I know, but here’s the latest resume

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/travelnews/7429899/Easter-holiday-plans-in-jeopardy-as-Unite-goes-ahead-with-7-days-of-BA-strikes.html

coupled with the fact that a further full out strike in May is currently still on the agenda.

“Gordon Brown came under pressure to condemn the industrial action. At a press conference he called on all parties to work together and added: “The disruption to services is completely unacceptable… this is bad news for the British economy.”

Well actually, this is seriously bad news for Brown – and the Labour polls.

Let me take you back to the Rover rout.

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/04/11/business/worldbusiness/11rover.html

The sums involved and the jobs subsequently lost pale into insignificance by today’s standards, but the bail-out was engineered one month before the last UK general election in 2005. And then followed a pointless 4-year £16m enquiry.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/6172359/Tony-Blair-quizzed-over-collapse-of-car-maker-MG-Rover.html

Having succeeded Blair in June 2007, and after much media speculation in early October that an election would be called for the first week of November, Brown called the whole thing off, following an opinion poll of marginal constituencies targeted by the Conservatives, which indicated that an election could result in the loss of the overall Labour majority.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/7031749.stm

Well! That little exercise cost the UK more than a couple of £m in pre-electioneering – it cost millions the Northern Rock ruck, which Jeff Randall inimitably summed up:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/3644045/Gordon-Brown-will-be-defined-by-Northern-Rock.html

“As a result of Brown’s meddling, what began as a corporate problem has degenerated into a national scandal, the end of which is nowhere in sight”.

A portentous precis of his whole tenure.

In short – the unions are circling their impotent prey.

Meanwhile, keep a beady eye on the punters

http://www.electionpredict.com/news/tories-still-on-course-for-majority-despite-latest-poll.html

Pay attention to what the consumer does, not what he says…

The data should support a “risk-on” atmosphere today.

USD/JPY is the main beneficiary, rising to 90.86 so far, chipping away at offers at 91.00 from exporters.

2-year note yields are on the rise, breaking 1.0%, a positive for USD/JPY…

The USD has seen some across the board slippage. Some have cited reports Janet Yellen is Obama’s pick for Fed  vice chairperson as one of the reasons for this bout of weakness. She is a noted monetary dove. In her most recent speech she said the economy will operate below potential this year and next and still needs low interest rates saying “This is not the time to be tightening.” Oh well it’s a reason of sorts I guess.

EUR/USD presently at 1.3765 having started out around 1.3695 and has been as high as 1.3796.   Asian sovereign buying seen early.  We got to around 1.3725/30 where Russia was a notable seller stalling the rally. But not for long.  We were soon through touted sell orders at 1.3730/50, tripping stops just above and making it to just shy of 1.3800 where sovereign sell orders had been cited earlier in the day.

Traders were quick to note a US investment bank putting out a long EUR/USD recommendaton, target 1.4500, stop 1.3500.  The release of demonstrably stronger than expected euro zone industrial output data certainly helped provide underpinning.

Cable up at 1.5155 from early 1.5065, but slightly off session high 1.5172.  Asian sovereign seen buying early.  Market noted the Angus Reid poll showing Tories extending poll lead out to 13 points.  The pairing did swoon when comments from BOE’s Dale hit the wires, the MPC member opining that the QE pause doesn’t mean it has come to an end. We went quickly from around 1.5155 to 1.5135 before recovering just as quickly.

USD/JPY down at 90.45 from early 90.60 having been as low as 90.18 at one stage.

EUR/CHF down on the day. Started around 1.4618 and fell quickly.  It made it all the way to 1.4581 with a Swiss commercial bank a notable seller managing to run through reported  SNB bids in the 1.4590/95 area.  We’re presently at 4588.

USD/CAD sharply lower, down at  session low 1.0157 from early 1.0235, with decent stops tripped on move through 1.0200.  Move coincided with release of latest Canadian jobs data.

USD/CAD down at 1.0165 with stops through 1.0200 tripped.

• Timing of stimulus withdrawal will be difficult decision, guided by inflation outlook
• Range of evidence that QE having desired impact, but still long way to go
• Much of impact of QE purchases yet to feed through, we’ll know more over coming year
• Tentative signs that nominal spending in economy is starting to accelerate
• When time comes policy could be tightened by rate hikes, asset sales in any order

The aforementioned US investment bank’s recommendation seems to have certainly gotten the market’s attention.

USD/JPY steady around 90.55, but yen has weakened on major crosses.  EUR/JPY is up at 124.25 from early 124.05, while GBP/JPY up at 136.85 from early 136.45.

US investment house apparently out tipping USD/JPY at 109 by year end.  I’m with those guys (and gals)

Supporting the pairing is focus on next weeks March 16/17 BOJ meeting and possibility of more easing/support measures.  Bloomberg quotes two anonymous BOJ officials as saying central bank may seek to expand 10 trillon yen fund that provides loans to banks.

On the flip side, acting as a counter-balance, are  reports of ongoing fiscal year end repatriation flows.

Buy orders tipped at 90.00/20, small stops just below.  Sell orders layered from 90.80 up to 91.20.

Article by AEP in The Telegraph entitled “Europe’s banks brace for UK debt crisis” will have been duly noted, but to be honest it offers nothing new at all.

No major data releases today.

Sell orders tipped at 1.5090/00, stops through 1.5105.

Interesting to note a couple of UK clearers have been sellers of the EUR/GBP cross up around .9110/20 in past two sessions. Guess not everyone is so down on poor old sterling.

For today euro zone data as follows: 

07:00 GMT: German February wholesale price index expected +0.6% m/m

07:45 GMT: French current account for January expected -3.9 bln

09:00 GMT: Italian labour costs Q4

11:00 GMT: Euro zone industrial production expected +0.8% m/m

This time yesterday we had buy orders at 1.3600/20 and sell orders from 1.3670 up through 1.3705 and they’ve managed to hold price action over the past 24 hours. More sell orders tipped up at 1.3730/50, the one’s around 1.3750 said to be of good size.

Meanwhile, traders report the BIS is seen bidding for EUR/USD on dips to the 1.3655 level.

To counter excessive rise in swiss franc vs euro decisively.

Just ahead of announcement was getting reports SNB had been bidding 1.4605 on EUR/CHF and raised their bid to 1.4612.  I take it’s on the EBS platform. We sit presently at 1.4615.