Click on this link and put your best guess forward, presuming of course that it hasn’t already been taken. Two-time winner Iman has already taken the -140k and you’d better be quick or all the good ones will be gone.

The adjustment in pricing is related to the new pricing mechanisms which the major producers have implemented (over the Reuters newswires).

 Obviously this type of price decrease will have some sort of negative impact on currencies like the AUD, CAD and BRL as the year progresses. The AUD/USD has slipped 15 pips, now back below .9100.

 Sure GBP/AUD is in a definite short-term downtrend and it has been since 1.76 but to start selling on the 1.68 handle,when the risk of a retracement rally would seem to be very high, is certainly a risky proposition. The break below the 61.8% retracement level is also a bearish sign and suggests a possible full-retracement to 1.62 but it’s certainly not conclusive.

Personally I’d prefer to try buying dips in line with the uptrend which began in May at 1.62. Neither side of the market would seem to have a particular advantage here so jumping into any trade mid-stream seems a bit reckless to me.

I was opining yesterday that the price action in EUR/CHF is suggesting to me that we again may be able to consider a contrarian trade. Despite very heavy option-related selling, the pair jumped 200 pips in two sessions which suggests to me a market that is very short.

Now Citi Bank market analysts have come out and said that the hedge fund market is very short this pair, and they would probably know.

Technically there is no indication yet of any bottoming formation, and USD/CHF continues to trade in a very bearish fashion close to its recent lows, but I think EUR/CHF is one trade the contrarians among us should continue to monitor closely.

September for the FX market is normally a volatile time when traders in the major financial centres return from the summer holidays and start trading in earnest again. It looks like September hasn’t quite begun yet and we have to wait until the upcoming long weekend in the US is over before the real action begins.

Ranges were tight overnight and we can expect something similar in Asia, although it is risk-off Friday so that’s usually good for a flurry or two.

Good luck today and TGIF.

• ECB keeps rates unchanged; extends extraordinary liquidity operations into early January; 3-month refis to be done at variable, not fixed rates
• ECB staff raises GDP and inflation forecasts, Trichet sees no double dip
• US jobless claims fall 1,000 to 472,000
• US nonfarm productivity falls 1.8% in Q2
• US pending home sales rise 5.2% in August
• Chain store sales rise 3.2% on August: ICSC
• Reuters poll: 55% of economists polled see BOC rate hike next week
• US factory orders rise 0.1% in July, June revised higher to -0.6%
• S&P 500 average 0.9% to 1090
• US 10-year note yields rise 5 bp to 3.63%

A mostly range-bound session with EUR/USD stalling ahead of 1.2850. Stops reside just above 1.2860, traders report. Dips were limited to 1.2805 with European corporate buying seen on dips.

JPY pairs were quiet save for AUD/JPY which was a strong performer. AUD/USD closes at trend highs 0f 1.9120 ahead of payrolls.

Sorry for abbreviated wrap-up but we have a hurricane on the way and I need to do some prep work…

Many have trimmed positions in anticipation of tomorrow’s employment report but there are still a few intrepid jobbers around and they are marking up EUR/JPY a bit as US equities rally into the close. We’re up about 0.8% with a bit less than 15 minutes of trading to go.

Resistance on the hourly chart comes in around 108.20 near-term.

Tenderly caring for a dying whale…

I wonder if Sean lite the fuse?

Thanks to all of you who have opened and account with FXDD in support of our work here at ForexLive. If you have not yet done so, please consider opening one by clicking here.

It’s gonna be a busy 24 hours preparing for the first big hurricane in nearly 20 years.

Here’s a tune to get you in the mood…

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