Citibank analysts (not the tech guys) say like EUR/CHF, noting the slide is overextended and that hedge funds have too large a short position. Yield spreads between Germany and the likes of Greece and Spain have narrowed a bit of late, lessening the safe-haven play. The like a small position, about 5% of a portfolio, they say…

Not a lot of buzz in the market this afternoon so it is tough to get much of a read on things at the moment.

EUR?USD has eased back into the 1.2805/10 area, a level where a European corporate was a significant buyer earlier in the session. Expect a few small stops just below 1.2800 if it turns out there are not on the bid this time around. Better support remains in the 1.2775/80 region. Stops are seen around 1.2770 if that level gives way.

Looks like we are not alone in our problems with Twitter today…

Reuters quotes unnamed sources as saying officials in the euro zone and Japan have not discussed Euro zone participation in intervention to weaken the JPY.

The source offered these wise words “Do not pee into the wind, only with it.”

Profound.

Few expect Japan to garner much support from the G7 regarding intervention but they don’t expect any protest from other members, either.

I would not be at all surprised if intervention were to come that the Fed, ECB and BOE will intervene in the markets on the BOJ’s behalf, but almost certainly not for their own accounts.

Here we go again. Another oil rig has apparently exploded in the Gulf of Mexico.

Yesterday was extremely slow in the US afternoon and I fear a repeat today.

The stakes are fairly high tomorrow as an employment report that exceeds expectations will further buttress hopes that the US will be able to avoid a double-dip recession. If the data is better than expectations, look for safe-havens like USD, JPY and CHF to bear the brunt of the price action. Commodities currencies are the likely winners with majors like EUR and GBP next in line.

IF the data is appreciable worse than expected, turn the above forecast upside-down…

Reflation plays like AUD and CAD would suffer and the USD, JPY and CHF would be the likely winners.

Stops below the 1.5350 level survive their brush with a near-death experience and traders have been forced to scramble to cover. Low and behold, we’re up to 1.5400. She’s a cruel mistress, cable…

Is EUR/USD building a head and shoulders bottom on the daily charts? Looks like it to me. A few days of consolidation below 1.2850 would set the stage. Unfortunately, with payrolls ahead tomorrow, odds of  narrow consolidation seem low.

Food for though…

They sold at 1.6880 looking for a move below 1.63…Stoploss 1.7050.

A high-profile NY think tank which prefers to remain nameless says there is a possibility that the SNB could hike rates in December, though the odds are diminished (probably by the strong currency).

They firm sees the SNB hiking before the ECB, regardless.

Intervention cannot be ruled out, but it would not be as large as earlier efforts, they say…

My take is that the currency tightens monetary conditions enough that the SNB will refrain from hiking for soe time to come.

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