• German government spokesman:  No political decisions to be made on Monday on euro zone aid for Greece.  Not talking about possible financing for any EMF.  Greece has not asked for aid, is working on its debt problems itself
• Japan MOF’s Noda: Hopes BOJ will take appropriate policy steps in view of economic situation
• Japan government upgrades economic assessment for first time since July 2009. Economy has been steadily picking up. Raises assessment on personal consumption, capex
• Shanghai share index down 1.2%, lowest close in 5 weeks
• Swiss February producer/import prices -0.3% m/m, -1.0% y/y
• Euro zone Q4 2009 employment -0.2% q/q, -2.0% y/y
• Japan FinMin Kan:  Yen relatively stable now. Concerns remain that euro’s woes could effect yen
• BOE’s Barker: Possible Uk may have a quarter when GDP falls, but no double dip. Recovery will be bumpy, fragile

Bad morning for sterling, cable down at 1.5045 from early 1.5160, while EUR/GBP is up at .9118 from early .9060.  The move comes with worries over a hung parliament exacerabated by weekend polls; warning from Moody’s re Uk’s AAA rating; downbeat comments from BOE’s Barker; and poor UK housing data from Rightmove,  the +0.1% m/m rise in March being the lowest recorded for the month.

Cable, and sterling in general, started out on the front foot however, cable fleetingly above 1.5200, EUR/GBP down to .9047.  Given the raft of poor news the move was a little baffling and sources cited decent cable buying from Eastern Europe.  Some also seemed to take solace in the Moody’s comments, but I couldn’t quite see that myself.

Talk UK clearer was an aggressive cable seller during the session, mutterings it was tied to Prudential’s purchase of AIA.

EUR/USD little easier, but not by much.  EUR/USD sits at 1.3724 having been as low as 1.3699 after stops tripped through 1.3720.  Comments from German spokesman were duly noted (see above).  Talk of sovereign sell interest up at 1.3800 and again up at 1.3830/50 will be adding note of caution to euro bulls.

USD/JPY very marginally firmer, up at 90.70 from early 90.57.  The pairing remains fairly well underpinned ahead of  BOJ’s meeting later in the week.  Sell orders seen 90.80/00, stops just above there.

EUR/CHF has continued lower, presently down at 1.4533 from early 1.4560 as the SNB stays at home.

Cable down at session low 1.5020 amid reports of UK clearer sales.  Murmurings interest tied to Prudential’s purchase of AIA. 

Might see some support emerge around psychological 1.5000.  Stops as aforementioned tipped through 1.4990.

Cable is presently at 1.5045, trying to steady after earlier sharp slump which saw a UK clearer selling aggressively.  Couldn’t have been the one who recently bought the 6-month 1.4400 cable puts,could it?

Further stops tipped through 1.4990.  May well be decent buy orders lined up either side of the psychological 1.5000 given where stops touted, but haven’t got confirmation of that.

So much for sterling resiliency.   Cable stops have been tripped through 1.5150 and we’ve quickly fallen to 1.5100, while EUR/GBP has rallied to .9090 having earlier fallen as low as .9047. 

 The early sterling strength was a little baffling given the raft of bad news/articles.  The improvement seems to have been down  to cable buying out of Eastern Europe and some traders finding solace in Moody’s take on the UK budget deficit.  The second part is lost on me. The only Moody comments I saw were rather unsettling.  I possibly missed something, wouldn’t be first time.

Concerns remain that euro’s woes could affect yen.

Japanese authorities remain very much on the guard against any renewed yen strength.

EUR/USD sits at 1.3737, all but unchanged from when I arrived 3 1/2 hours ago.  Narrow rangebound trade has prevailed at the start of the European week.  Talk in the market has the BIS on the bid down at 1.3730.

Some stops tipped through 1.3720.  Meanwhile sovereign sell orders tipped at 1.3800 and again at 1.3830/50.

• Economy has been steadily picking up
• Maintains view deflation poses threat to economy
• Government repeats will work with BOJ to beat deflation, ensure econmic recovery
• Raises assessment on personal consumption, capex

Japan government official says escape from deflation still far off.

EUR/USD is down at 1.3737,  having closed out last week in North America up around 1.3760.

The move comes amid ongoing speculation China is close to implementing further steps to rein in growth, which is weighing on Asian stocks. Morgan Stanley expects “multiple” increases in bank reserve ratio requirements and higher interest rates, starting as early as next month.

Elsewhere Sunday’s Irish Times carries comments by EU spokesman, saying euro zone has not agreed a financial support package for Greece, but that technical work is ongoing.

Very little in way of euro zone data today:

10:00 GMT: Euro zone unemployment Q4

Tail end of last week there were reports of sovereign sell interest lying around 1.3800 and these reports have been supplemented by talk of further sell interest up in the 1.3830/50 zone.

• AUD and CAD positioning moved to overweight from neutral after a week of heavy buying. AUD long positions increased by 25%.
• EUR shorts increased by 10%, to a new record level
• GBP open positions were reduced by about 6% but the market remains significantly short
• JPY long positions were trimmed by almost 20%

Generally speaking, the market is neutrally positioned on the USD and CHF. It is long AUD, CAD and JPY and is short EUR, GBP and NZD.

I know nothing about USD/CAD, let’s make that clear from the outset, yet I do get some good pieces of information there from time to time. I was told last week by a professional trader that if you want to be long, make sure your stops are below 1.0155. The low on Friday night was 53 I believe. It looks like this level has been vindicated, so if you are still long I’d be getting nervous below 1.0150.

• 1
• 2
• 3
• 4
• 5
• ...
• 851
• >