Unless I’ve missed something, it seems that London dealers will be getting off their commuter trains without an overly bearish GBP mindset. The UK press is concentrating on the upcoming election and on European woes. I have short term technical support/resistance levels in the cable at 1.5275/1.5380 with 1.5180/1.5425 outside of there.

AUD/NZD is back below 1.29 and NZD/USD is at .7125 after a few sessions of fairly furious NZD short covering. We saw from the speculative positioning data earlier in the week that the market was already quite short the Kiwi and obviously not all that comfortable with the position, judging by the short-covering rush. Technical resistance in the NZD/USD is quite firm between .7150/75 and support in the AUD/NZD is at 1.2850 (38.2% 1.2410/1.3120)

EUR/USD has been flirting with the downtrend that has been in place since early December in quiet US trade. We’ve edged above the trendline the two prior sessions on an intraday basis but have yet to close above it. Given the lack of momentum in the market, I get the sense that we may break the downtrend by moving sideways rather than exploding to the topside…

1.3741 is where the trendline is drawn today, for what it’s worth.

With most of the major pairings hardly moving in 30 pip ranges it is unusual to see EUR/GBP moving around but that is what it has done in Asia today. It opened at .9090, traded down to .9070 before moving higher again to .9100 at present. A quick look at the daily charts shows a fairly bullish set-up which is consolidating inside a .9050/.9150 range. More range trading looks likely though it is hard to argue against the recent up-trend. More information needed.

Looks like we might be close to a good buying level for AUD/JPY. AUD/USD dipped down below .9120 after the RBA minutes but the stay down there was short-lived and we are now back at the .9140 opening level. USD/JPY also tried to break lower and trigger stops below 90.15 but the bids there are seemingly quite solid.

The AUD/JPY daily chart tells a slightly different story. Any close today below 83.25 would suggest to me that a short term top is in place and that we should see a gradual move lower towards 81.00.

With the euro on the defensive this morning amid risk aversion, the 123.90 level in EUR/JPY is coming into focus. That level was a strong cap on the way higher and should now provide a floor on pullbacks. Expect stops to cluster around the 123.75/80 area if it breaks.

Whilst they are by no means out of the woods just yet, it looks to me like the EUR and the GBP may be trying to form short term bases against the AUD. If EUR/AUD can get back above the 15-day MA at 1.5055 (it’s presently trading around 1.5000) then the fierce recent downtrend can be slowed down. GBP/AUD is similarly trying to base at 1.6250 and if it can overcome resistance at 1.6760 then it may also suggest that the downtrend is being arrested.

The market knew what was coming but nevertheless insisted on buying the NZD in the two days leading up to the meeting. Governor Bollard said he’s in no hurry to raise rates, no surprise there, and the NZD/USD falls 100 pips and is hanging around it’s lows. NZD/USD could easily fall another 100 before it meets any type of meaningful technical support, a moderately bullish trend channel with parameters now at .6865 and .7105. Edges please.

The close above the 100-day MA and the rising 20-day MA are both good signs for AUD/USD bulls. Nevertheless there is still the possibility of a topping formation emerging and really it will take a clean break above .9400 to confirm the latest bull trend. Initial support levels are at .9060 and .8970. Resistance points are quite scarce until .9320.

The rounding top or bottom is a favourite of many of the old-timers in the market and it looks like we may be seeing one form on the EUR/USD daily chart. The actual base at 1.3450 is very close to the important 61.8% support and this adds strength to the bullish analysis. Initial support levels are at 1.3570 and 1.3530. Resistance points are 1.3735, 1.3790, 1.3840 and 1.3870.

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