The latest RICS data shows that more real estate professionals reported a rise in house prices, 32% up from 30%, but activity in the housing market was off probably due to the very cold weather.

GBP has been mixed so far today, up a bit down a bit, but I suspect that the poor retail sales figures might have more impact once London opens. Maybe a long EUR/GBP trade might be a good short term play as the daily chart looks to be bottoming out.

Just been reading some stuff from Barclays Capital. Apparently they have a target of 8830  (200 dma) for EUR/GBP and see this as conservative.  We’re presently at .8785. Take it for what you will.

EUR/USD is back at 1.3670, which is where it closed in NY, but cable is lower probably on some increasingly bearish fundamental analyses such as Gerry has posted below. EUR/GBP has had a high of .8770 so far this morning. Next technical resistance in the cross is at .8795 and a clean break above there should see a swift move to .8850.

I assume there are very large barrier options at the 1.3500 level which could slow any EUR slide but looking at the charts, there is little obvious support until the 1.3410/20 level. 1.3422 is a bottom on the dailies dating back to May of last year. 1.3411 is the 61.8% retracement of the 1.2342/1.5142 rally.

The 61.8% retracement of the .8600/.8765 rally comes in around .8665 and this level will need to hold if the short term recovery is to be maintained. The 50% retracement is at .8685 and that is the approximate low so far.

The 38.2% retracement of the 91.25/88.60 collapse comes in at 89.60. This should be the initial resistance level this morning.

All sorts of conjecture about what is actually going on at this level but I believe that all the bigger players (BIS, China) are buyers around there. 1.3851 was the low on Monday and 1.3868 is the 200-week MA. We can expect to see lots of stop-loss orders just below the former.

That was the low in December and the level is holding thus far.

Much of the market is obviously thinking the same way I am. Very poor NZ employment data will crush any possibility of imminent rate rises and may even encourage an easier policy. With the Japanese retail market generally sitting long the NZD, we may see some serious liquidation of long positions. That’s my reading of the situation at least. Hourly support is at 62.90 in the NZD/JPY and there’s a gap back to 64.30 on the topside.

I know it’s way too late now but I didn’t see the trade recommendation last night. They sold EUR/USD early in the European session above 1.40 with a s/l above 1.41 and a minimum profit target at 1.3700. How come I always see their bad trades on time?

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