ForexLive » Techs

UK press takes a breather on sterling-bashing

Sean Lee — Thu, 18 Mar 2010 04:36:53 +0000

Unless I’ve missed something, it seems that London dealers will be getting off their commuter trains without an overly bearish GBP mindset. The UK press is concentrating on the upcoming election and on European woes. I have short term technical support/resistance levels in the cable at 1.5275/1.5380 with 1.5180/1.5425 outside of there.

NZD makes big about-turn; market caught short

Sean Lee — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 22:36:26 +0000

AUD/NZD is back below 1.29 and NZD/USD is at .7125 after a few sessions of fairly furious NZD short covering. We saw from the speculative positioning data earlier in the week that the market was already quite short the Kiwi and obviously not all that comfortable with the position, judging by the short-covering rush. Technical resistance in the NZD/USD is quite firm between .7150/75 and support in the AUD/NZD is at 1.2850 (38.2% 1.2410/1.3120)

EUR/USD leaning up against downtrend resistance

Jamie Coleman — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 13:16:11 +0000

EUR/USD has been flirting with the downtrend that has been in place since early December in quiet US trade. We’ve edged above the trendline the two prior sessions on an intraday basis but have yet to close above it. Given the lack of momentum in the market, I get the sense that we may break the downtrend by moving sideways rather than exploding to the topside…

1.3741 is where the trendline is drawn today, for what it’s worth.

EUR/GBP reasonably volatile in otherwise quiet session

Sean Lee — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 04:48:15 +0000

With most of the major pairings hardly moving in 30 pip ranges it is unusual to see EUR/GBP moving around but that is what it has done in Asia today. It opened at .9090, traded down to .9070 before moving higher again to .9100 at present. A quick look at the daily charts shows a fairly bullish set-up which is consolidating inside a .9050/.9150 range. More range trading looks likely though it is hard to argue against the recent up-trend. More information needed.

AUD/USD bounces back yet again, USD/JPY fails to trigger stops

Sean Lee — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 01:58:16 +0000

Looks like we might be close to a good buying level for AUD/JPY. AUD/USD dipped down below .9120 after the RBA minutes but the stay down there was short-lived and we are now back at the .9140 opening level. USD/JPY also tried to break lower and trigger stops below 90.15 but the bids there are seemingly quite solid.

The AUD/JPY daily chart tells a slightly different story. Any close today below 83.25 would suggest to me that a short term top is in place and that we should see a gradual move lower towards 81.00.

EUR/JPY easing toward key 123.90/124.00 support

Jamie Coleman — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 15:00:16 +0000

With the euro on the defensive this morning amid risk aversion, the 123.90 level in EUR/JPY is coming into focus. That level was a strong cap on the way higher and should now provide a floor on pullbacks. Expect stops to cluster around the 123.75/80 area if it breaks.

AUD crosses running out of steam

Sean Lee — Sun, 14 Mar 2010 21:58:30 +0000

Whilst they are by no means out of the woods just yet, it looks to me like the EUR and the GBP may be trying to form short term bases against the AUD. If EUR/AUD can get back above the 15-day MA at 1.5055 (it’s presently trading around 1.5000) then the fierce recent downtrend can be slowed down. GBP/AUD is similarly trying to base at 1.6250 and if it can overcome resistance at 1.6760 then it may also suggest that the downtrend is being arrested.

NZD still trading with soft tone post RBNZ

Sean Lee — Thu, 11 Mar 2010 04:10:18 +0000

The market knew what was coming but nevertheless insisted on buying the NZD in the two days leading up to the meeting. Governor Bollard said he’s in no hurry to raise rates, no surprise there, and the NZD/USD falls 100 pips and is hanging around it’s lows. NZD/USD could easily fall another 100 before it meets any type of meaningful technical support, a moderately bullish trend channel with parameters now at .6865 and .7105. Edges please.

AUD/USD techs: bullish set-up but not yet confirmed

Sean Lee — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 00:05:33 +0000

The close above the 100-day MA and the rising 20-day MA are both good signs for AUD/USD bulls. Nevertheless there is still the possibility of a topping formation emerging and really it will take a clean break above .9400 to confirm the latest bull trend. Initial support levels are at .9060 and .8970. Resistance points are quite scarce until .9320.

EUR/USD technicals: rounding bottom forming

Sean Lee — Mon, 08 Mar 2010 23:11:21 +0000

The rounding top or bottom is a favourite of many of the old-timers in the market and it looks like we may be seeing one form on the EUR/USD daily chart. The actual base at 1.3450 is very close to the important 61.8% support and this adds strength to the bullish analysis. Initial support levels are at 1.3570 and 1.3530. Resistance points are 1.3735, 1.3790, 1.3840 and 1.3870.

Cable techs: selling rallies still preferred

Sean Lee — Sun, 07 Mar 2010 22:11:53 +0000

This market overshot on the downside when it fell from 1.54 to 1.48 in a few short days. There are two ways of viewing such a sell-off, a final capitulation at the end of a move or an indication that the down side is the weak side and that more losses are likely. I’m in the latter camp for now.

Support is clear now at 1.4800 and at 1.4950/1.5000 on a more short term timeframe. Initial resistance is at 1.5180 (38.2% of 1.5820/1.4785) but the preferred entry level for me is at 1.5425, which is the 61.8% retracement and the broad bearish trend line. This is also close to the 1.55 breakdown level.

These are wide ranges, as is usual in cable, and patience will be required. Trading the edges of 1.4950/1.5180 in the short term and similarly, 1.4800/1.5425 in the medium term, is my suggestion.

AUD/USD techs: bullish close above the 100-day MA

Sean Lee — Sun, 07 Mar 2010 21:09:27 +0000

Friday’s close at .9082 was the first close above the 100-day MA in 6 weeks and although far from convincing, it is certainly another bullish factor to go along with the strong up-trend. There’s not much in the way of significant resistance on the daily chart until .9330 and support is now more clearly defined at .8935 which is both an intraday low and the 20-day MA. I’m looking to play the edges of this range with a bullish bias (I have been running a long position for almost a week).

Cable slips a little in early European trade

Gerry Davies — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 07:48:26 +0000

Cable has given a little ground as European trade gets underway, presently down at 1.5010 just above psychological 1.5000.

Yesterday sell orders up at 1.5120/30 pretty much held the line, although we did get a pesky spike to 1.5133 or maybe 1.5135 depending on what price data you look at. Medium term sentiment still seems rather bearish on the pairing.

For today supports 1.5000 and then 1.4970/80.

UK data due out is thin on the ground:

09:30 GMT: UK PPI for February. Input prices +0.2% m/m, +7.8% y/y; output prices +0.2% m/m, +4.0% y/y, core +0.2% m/m, +2.8% y/y.

EUR/GBP: expect more volatility inside wide ranges

Sean Lee — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 22:52:06 +0000

The sharp rally off .8660 looks to have found an interim top at .9150 and the market is currently in retracement mode. The 38.2% retracement is at .8960 and the 61.8% is at .8845. Based on the ferocity of the initial up-move, I remain a buyer on dips although the fact that the market stalled at a previous major high from last December is certainly interesting. Play the edges is once again the best advice I can give. Short term support/resistance parameters are at .9010/.9100.

EUR/JPY technicals: 122.40/50 still the level to watch

Sean Lee — Wed, 03 Mar 2010 23:48:27 +0000

I have the daily trendline from 134 through 125 coming in around 122.50 which is also approximately where the 50% retracement of 125.23/119.65 is. This might well be the most important technical level to watch today.

Resistance levels looming in EUR/USD, cable

Sean Lee — Wed, 03 Mar 2010 00:42:48 +0000

EUR/USD is following the cable higher and next resistance is at 1.3680. Expect more stops above there. Next resistance in the cable is at 1.5100, prior s/t support.

ForexLive European Morning Wrap: Sterling crushed

Gerry Davies — Mon, 01 Mar 2010 12:42:25 +0000

Prudential PLC agrees to buy AIA for $35.5 bln
Spain’s Economy Minister: Euro zone will not just stand by if a member is in trouble
Shanghai share index ends up 1.2%, highest close in 5 weeks
Eurogroup’s Juncker: Would act against market speculation if it ignores Greek reform efforts -Handelsblatt
EU’s Rehn: Had very fruitful exchange of views with Greek FinMin. Sure “ we can overcome” this formidable crisis together
Greek PM: Greece fiscal crisis is only tip of the iceberg, has reached dramatic dimensions
German govt spokeswoman: No new developments on issue of aid for Greece. Ball in Greece’s court. No aid to Greece to be factored into German 2010 budget
Ukraine parliament to hold vote of no confidence in government of PM Tymoshenko on Wednesday
Swiss February PMI 57.4, better than median forecast 56.0
Euro zone final February manufacturing PMI 54.2, up fractionally from 54.1 flash, 30 month high
UK February manufacturing PMI 56.6, unchanged from upwardly revised 56.6 in January which was strongest read in 15 years
UK January mortgage approvals 48,198 vs 58,223 in December, well below median forecast of 50,000 and lowest since May 2009

Sterling weakness very much the main feature today. Cable is down at 1.4885 from early 1.5160, EUR/GBP up at .9087 from around .8975. It was even worse at one stage, with session low 1.4784 seen in cable while EUR/GBP posted .9148 session high.

Two factors were at play, firstly the announcement confirming Prudential had bought AIG’s Asia life insurance business (AIA) and the weekend poll indicating that we could well be headed for a hung parliament. Early trading was quite choppy, an early sell-off folllowed by rally to 1.5180/85. The die was caste though once the Pru announcement hit the wires.

Option barriers were well tipped at 1.5000 but they were easily brushed aside, tripping stops just below. More stops were hit on moves through 1.4940 and 1.4900 and then the coup de grace when 1.4854 (61.8% fibo retracement point 1.3500-1.7044) gave out. We went from just above 1.4854 to session low 1.4784 and back again in what seemed like the blink of an eye. UK clearers have been active sellers of cable and buyers on EUR/GBP today.

EUR/USD started around 1.3610 and rallied early, aided in no small part by aggressive buying from a US investment house. The rally petered out around 1.3656 and the pairing was already slipping lower when comments from German spokeswoman (see above) helped push the pairing below 1.3600.

However the BIS stepped in buying around 1.3585/90 and looked to have stemmed the bleeding. That is until the collapse in cable which dragged EUR/USD down to 1.3511 before slight recovery to 1.3533 at writing.

USD/JPY touch firmer, at 89.30 from early 89.10. Basically sidelined. Buy orders tipped 88.80 down to 88.20. Sell orders 89.40/50. Stops just above.

Cable extends sell-off

Gerry Davies — Mon, 01 Mar 2010 11:24:54 +0000

Cable has been as low as 1.4944, presently at 1,4953.

Technical supports 1.4942 and 1.4900.

BIS seems to have stopped the bleeding in EUR/USD at least for now. We’re sitting at 1.3595. It sounds as though they’ve got something of an ongoing interest.

EUR/GBP trading above .9000

Gerry Davies — Mon, 01 Mar 2010 10:07:45 +0000

EUR/GBP has made further gains this morning, presently at .9012 from early .8975.

Just reading a Dow Jones piece. Barclays Capital say with EUR/GBP having breached it’s 50% fibonacci retracement at .9007, it opens way to further gains toward .9230/40.

Barclays expects stops to be tripped on move above late December high around .9057.

Solid buying interest in EUR/USD around 1.3600

Sean Lee — Mon, 01 Mar 2010 02:55:26 +0000

No sign of any Sovereign interest just yet but dealers say that there are lots of corporate and real money bids every few pips below 1.3600 which have been soaking up the selling. 1.3594 is also the 38.2% retracement of the 1.3450/1.3683 rally.