Federal Reserve FOMC minutes due Wednesday - more previews

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: Central Banks

I posted previews of the Federal Open Market Committee minutes here earlier: 

They are due at 1900 GMT 

More previews now, these via (bolding is mine)

  • We expect the minutes of the January FOMC meeting to show a high degree of consensus that US economic activity is solid.
  • The committee upgraded paragraph one of the statement in several areas and the minutes are likely to have a constructive tone about the outlook for activity and labor markets.
  • The minutes are likely to read modestly more confidently about the outlook for inflation rising to the Fed's target over time, though we expect to hear some corners of dissent about prejudging that outcome.
  • We expect the minutes to show that as many participants fear undershooting inflation as fear overshooting on maximum employment, leaving risks to the outlook as broadly balanced.
  • Last, the minutes may feel somewhat stale in light of the recently passed Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018 and expectations of a $1tn federal deficit in 2019.
BNP Paribas:
  • The January FOMC statement was hawkish, with the Committee upgrading its economic assessment and language around inflation. 
  • We expect the minutes to capture the sentiment to its upgrades, and will be looking for its take on the drivers of the reacceleration in activity. 
  • Our key focus in the minutes will be looking for clues as to whether "further gradual increases in the federal funds rate" implies more rate hikes.