Goldman Sachs: Its "clear the RBA is gradually shifting towards a more positive stance"

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: Central Banks

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe spoke late yesterday, Mike had the headlines here:

and more:
Mike pretty much nailed it with those headlines - but there is plenty more at his posts.

GS assess the speech also, their "bottom line" on his speech (bolding mine):

  • Bottom line: In a speech today, RBA Governor Phil Lowe outlined his thoughts on the "next chapter" of the Australian economy, expressing the view that the period of global monetary expansion "is now drawing to a close" and that this tightening would, over time, "be expected to flow through to us, just as lower rates have". The speech also touched on the recent pick up in domestic economic conditions and outlined some risks going forward. Combined with the positive speech yesterday by Assistant Governor Ellis, it is clear the RBA is gradually shifting towards a more positive stance. That said, Dr Lowe stressed the RBA will continue to watch the data evolve, and will be paying particular attention to inflation and wages, non-mining investment and employment.
More (in very brief)
  • recent economic developments in Australia, noting improvements on several fronts, including non-mining investment and employment
  • On Australia's household debt, the Governor noted that "to date, households have been coping reasonably well with the higher debt levels", as evident in the moderate debt servicing ratios and housing loan arrears, although medium term risks still bear close watching.
  • described labour market conditions as "unambiguously positive", citing the rising participation rate and full time skew
  • noted the improvement in mining jobs, exploration activity and better business sentiment in the mining states
  • On financial market pricing of the RBA cash rate, the Governor noted that he generally "agrees with the direction", and that although the rate hike may not be "for some time", people "should prepare for higher rates".

"Mine!" (I think he was the only one though)