vlad: imho, if it gets there fast, it's over. Daily diverngence, false breakout et all. I keep jabbin' usd shorts, since on all fronts it seems to start cracking('xcept aud, but aud is aud). Question is if today was the exhaustion or not(it's tuesday, otoh there's still ecb/nfp, plus eur ain't very enticing per se). as the sun rises in the east, so the 100 wma/gap at 1.32 has to be restested before resuming At least with the current data(i.e. - no major news/reason to panic). If something really happens, than... Otherwise, for ecb increasing balance sheet with 2-300bln(with luck) and US having it's usual spout of good data at end of fiscal year, the move is pretty big already. problem with eur longs is eur/gbp and eur/jpy imho. - September 30th, 2014 05:50:44 PM
Dust: Market bottoms when there's no more buyers ... not sellers ... - September 30th, 2014 05:42:39 PM
Cambiste: anything is possible but I doubt it seems to stall out at 50 Fibonacci retracement level on the day I think sell it here with a stop above 1.2665 should be good I don't see anyone really looking to be long Euro ahead of ECB and considering how dovish Draghi Comments were last week why should they. - September 30th, 2014 05:32:07 PM
Greg Michalowski: The EURUSD has been falling. but can it go to 1.2700 before it starts to fall further....???? - September 30th, 2014 05:28:25 PM
Dust: "We make way for the man who boldly pushes past us." Christian Nestell Bovee - September 30th, 2014 05:24:03 PM
Milos: Same here, short eur/cad - September 30th, 2014 05:24:03 PM
ANWAR: 1.2545... MWAHAHAHAhahahahaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!! Sorry, got me going there WERNER AYALA.... - September 30th, 2014 05:10:43 PM
Lproject92: I'm short eur/cad watched it reverse today after lows earlier in the day but had added to my shorts again. Let's see how it goes - September 30th, 2014 05:06:36 PM
WERNER AYALA: THE EURO WILL FALL MUAHHAHAHAHAH - September 30th, 2014 04:48:23 PM
Stephy: @David, really, I "only" have 15 years of tier 1 ibank trading experience under my belly and the only way you receive money on a long USDCHF position in the current environment is when you literally roll over hundreds of millions of dollars and get a top notch deal from your broker due to the size you are rolling. Regardless of whether you are long or short USDCHF at the moment you generally end up paying for any position sizes below the tens if not hundreds of millions. But please share with us your awesome broker that pays you on a long USDCHF position, I am sure we are all curious to know. - September 30th, 2014 05:29:09 PM
Bud Spencer: No worries. Fund liquidations are excellent commission generation days at Tier1 desks.... - September 30th, 2014 04:39:53 PM
zeke: Very weird volatility starting at 0450am edt today when the E/Y and E/$ collapsed and the Eminis raced up to 1977. IMO it's a bit more than month end. Some must be liquidating big positions. And might be caught wrong-footed with the US Treas 2/3&5yr options expiring. My real concern is that the ALGOs and HFTs have everything wired together and it might be just like my POC Audi convertible where everything short circuits if the car is driven or parked downhill in a thunderstorm. LOL - September 30th, 2014 04:35:26 PM
Rhona: Hello Ryan, Please educate me... What does this mean?: "Sods law dictates that we always get out at a bottom/top for a loss. " Because I've been there... Rhona - September 30th, 2014 04:05:05 PM
david: You been reading my book of trading Chase? - September 30th, 2014 03:12:01 PM
Ryan Littlestone: Sorry to hear that Chase. You can guarantee it'll be the bottom. Sods law dictates that we always get out at a bottom/top for a loss. - September 30th, 2014 02:51:16 PM
Chase: That dip on the kiwi finally forced me out of longs I held for months. An emotionally draining loss. If that turns out to be a long term bottom I am going to personally track down and wedgie every last goddamn Kiwi bull on the face of the planet. - September 30th, 2014 02:46:56 PM
david: End of month squaring on what has been epic shorts for some? - September 30th, 2014 02:40:24 PM
lilac: New bond sales are $22B this year so far, the lowest level since 2006 and down 71% year from the $76B Russian borrowers issued over the same period in 2013, according to Dealogic, and the volume of syndicated loans dropped to an all-time low of about $8B. - September 30th, 2014 03:46:39 PM
howard: It was really a senseless misinformation to speculate that economy the size of Russia could implement capital controls. Russia has robust reserves and have fair global share of hard commodity assets that are paid for in US dollars. Yes there could be inflationary pressure for imported US dollar goods but with most trades now with Europe, Asia and South America it may not be that bad. Surely this is the type of selective statistics employed by the media to create sensation. Not that bad as that is their job. - September 30th, 2014 03:18:31 PM
YAR: I'd bet trade sanctions are lifted in time for next years summer arctic drilling to go ahead as scheduled. cynical of politics - September 30th, 2014 03:12:51 PM
Jody Lloyd: Ryan, That sounds lovely. Would like to know how that goes. I hope to do the same on the way down. - September 30th, 2014 03:28:57 PM
david: Big hurdle 110 Ryan. Reckon a pile of stops will get flushed there so if it pops it'll fly. I'm nursing this long up as well and moving my stop along the 200hma. - September 30th, 2014 02:30:57 PM
Ryan Littlestone: All good this end Jody, thanks. I'm still holding out for my first 1000 pipper of the year if we hit 110.10 - September 30th, 2014 02:24:57 PM
howard: @Mike Maybe you need good understanding that you are in the market not in a political convention. You need to be dealing with facts not fiction. Yes I look at Eur RUB ..it is unchanged to lower now.This means Ruble is stronger than Euro today. It is also fart stronger than Jpy today. But if you do understand currency exchange you need to get it that Ruble should be in play as commodities oriented currency with relatively higher inflationary trends. You do not compare apple with oranges do you ? USD is strong across the board and most currency across the globe have lost a ton for weeks now. Every currency without exception ! Hot money flowing out in view of negative carry trade hitting Aussie and NZDUSD recently. On capital controls please beware of what is known as misinformation. Russia WILL not introduce any capital control here. This is just one of those speculations. Russia have got nearly $1Trillion in reserves and not indebted to any country. What could be the reason of capital controls ? - September 30th, 2014 03:09:26 PM
hello: Mike: isn't it all tick for tack though? I mean, the west freezes certain Russian citizens' assets and Russia does the same. I'm curious as to how low Russian ruble will go once the Russian central bank finally allows Ruble value to be determined by the 'market' next year. We are seeing countries trying to raise their inflation numbers - but Russia and a number of other countries are a primary example of inflation going overboard and even 'capital controls' measure is not doing much to counter that. I guess it's time to raise rates by 5 percent? I mean, right now, Russia has 8% rate, but it's clearly not enough. All of the countries seeking inflation should take a look at Russia and see what awaits them once their interventions bring them the much desired inflation which then surpasses their targets. At that point, not only will you have to stop printing, but also start burning money to make it go up in value and then get ready to raise rates by 20% just to stay afloat. - September 30th, 2014 02:46:43 PM
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