Comments

  • Yohay : Good signs that folks in the UK are splashing out while inflationary pressures are kept in check

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    Yohay: Thanks for the kind words Ryan! I also think things are about to change both in the US and in the UK when wages begin rising, and I don't think it's too far off. - September 18th, 2014 09:38:56 AM
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    scjohn2008: I think I missed something here after reading the caption on the picture. EU ban?????? - September 18th, 2014 09:36:37 AM
  • CreditPhil : Banks take €82.6bn in ECB TLTRO funds

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    CreditPhil: My 2 cents. It is jot funding banks need to lend to SME's. It is capital that is too expensive in Basel 3. So I don't quite understand this TLTRO new toy. - September 18th, 2014 09:38:04 AM
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    James: I think 100b was expected... to starve of a full blown QE type program. not far off so kinda neutral bias news. It's all a bit woolly. Is Euro going to hell in a hand basket... not off this news IMO. - September 18th, 2014 09:33:16 AM
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    Nicoco: No idea how it can be priced in EUR...there is good and bad. - September 18th, 2014 09:28:41 AM
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    Bud Spencer: Bottom line is: nobody needs liquidity. The Bundesbank was totally right: there is more than enough liquidity, but nobody actually NEEDS it! - September 18th, 2014 09:26:40 AM
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    Chi: not good not good ECB... - September 18th, 2014 09:23:45 AM
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    Bud Spencer: ha, ha, ha!!!! LOL! What a farce!!!!!! - September 18th, 2014 09:21:40 AM
  • Cesar : EURUSD orders 18 Sept

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    Cesar: This is bullish for the Euro. Just 82.6B? Buy buy ! Short squeeze coming soon. - September 18th, 2014 09:32:50 AM
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    Mike Paterson: http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2014/09/18/yes-folks-its-tltro-time/ - September 18th, 2014 08:40:07 AM
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    Mike Paterson: 09.15 gmt 10.15 bst 11.15 cet Lime - September 18th, 2014 08:18:26 AM
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    rene: hi bud,where do you obtain the details of TLTRO from please. thanx - September 18th, 2014 08:17:11 AM
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    pankaj jha: By my calculation, there is a very low probability that the LTRO is going to be more than 80-100 billion which should be bullish for euro. - September 18th, 2014 08:11:41 AM
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    lime: hi Mike what time /gmt is the LTRO coming out pls. thanx. - September 18th, 2014 07:59:17 AM
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    Mike Paterson: yes Bud I'll be posting a preview on that.. getting the orders out first - September 18th, 2014 07:43:42 AM
  • Mike Paterson : Yes folks it's TLTRO time !

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    Mike Paterson: you've just seen it Rokon.. lower take up lower euro - September 18th, 2014 09:28:01 AM
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    zeke: Let's see if I get this. EZ banks, that only make loans to insiders, are getting more almost free money so they can loan 95% of the money to insiders so that the insiders can buy risk assets. And this is supposed to create jobs and growth for the 95%. Seems to meet the definition of a scam to me. - September 18th, 2014 09:19:02 AM
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    Rokon: Hi Mike, what will effect on EUR of this TLTRO ? - September 18th, 2014 08:53:13 AM
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    Claudio: What can we expect a bearish outlook for the EUR on this meeting? Perhaps - September 18th, 2014 08:47:53 AM
  • Ryan Littlestone : USDJPY orders 18 Sept

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    Ryan Littlestone: I'll pop something up soon pandu Here's yesterday's if you missed it - September 18th, 2014 08:50:57 AM
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    pandu: Mike, can you bring us the latest betting odds / money wagered on the Scottish ref results? Betting money usually gets it right and is a better guide to the outcome than polls. - September 18th, 2014 08:18:17 AM
  • Mike Paterson : GBPUSD orders 18 Sept

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    Mike Paterson: i've said a few times here JT that I expect rallies to be sold on a No vote which in all likelihood it will be but it's extremely close and by no means certain. i trade mainly GBPUSD, EURGBP, USDCHF, EURCHF, and associated pairs. with some USDJPY, USDCAD and AUDUSD thrown in good measure and a bit of FTSE but rarely got more than 4 possies on the go at any one time - September 18th, 2014 08:43:30 AM
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    James Teller: Hi Mike. Whats your take on the referendum? It seems like its going to be a "No" and in that case, are you expecting cable to rip? Do you only dictate cable or you trade some other pair as well? - September 18th, 2014 08:08:16 AM
  • Mike Paterson : SNB says they are ready to act immediately if necessary

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    Mike Paterson: 09.15 gmt 10.15 bst 11.15 cet - September 18th, 2014 08:39:02 AM
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    Richard: I for one thought the Swiss were to be more then a depository for Germans fleeing the ECB. That Swiss agriculture and Manufacturing had some political clout as they were core business interests of the Swiss people. Looks as if the Banking sector is more important and or holds control within Switzerland. Switzerland just another European country where the domestic populations interests are getting controlled by events supraborder. - September 18th, 2014 08:26:05 AM
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    jerhong: Hey Mike - do you know what time will ECB announces the allotment of TLTRO funds today? I read in a Bloomberg article that state its 11:15am. Wasn't sure its US ET or GMT? Thanks! - September 18th, 2014 08:18:37 AM
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    alex: They don't need to raise rates to keep inflation low because last data shows that inflation doesn't want to go up, and to keep mortgages low for real estate buying and so curb the inflation deriving from high home prices they can go the BOE way, which is followed also by RBA or RBNZ i go by memory now. - September 18th, 2014 08:16:35 AM
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    pandu: Repeating comment as last one seems to have disappeared into the ether... The simple fact is that the SNB can print infinite amounts of CHF and intervene in the fx market to buy all the EUR that the hedge funds / speculators want to sell. I don't mean they will literally print to infinity, but they can do so. This is the threat that hangs over any speculator willing to test their determination. While it is not feasible to try and intervene to make a weak currency strong (e.g. the UK pound in 1993), it is easier and entirely feasible to intervene to keep a currency weak. Witness the HK dollar peg to the USD still standing strong after more than 30 years. - September 18th, 2014 08:16:16 AM
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    cesare: Ciao Mike. If the market tested around 1.20 and did not succeed to break down,soon or later it will try to go up and try another form of speculation. - September 18th, 2014 08:15:44 AM
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    pandu: The simple fact is that the SNB can print infinite amounts of CHF and intervene in the fx market to buy all the EUR that the hedge funds / speculators want to sell. I don't mean they will literally print to infinity, but they can do so. This is the threat that hangs over any speculator willing to test their determination. While it is not feasible to try and intervene to make a weak currency strong (e.g. the UK pound in 1993), it is easier and entirely feasible to intervene to keep a currency weak. Witness the HK dollar peg to the USD still standing strong after more than 30 years. - September 18th, 2014 08:13:37 AM
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    Mike Paterson: Let's hope so Alex.. will be quite a bunfight! - September 18th, 2014 08:11:24 AM
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    Mike Paterson: Hi George.. they certainly wont be hiking rates any time soon though eh? - September 18th, 2014 08:10:00 AM
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    alex: CHF already under pressure, if EURCHF goes below 1.2045 their 'ready to act' sentence will be tested soon - September 18th, 2014 08:05:52 AM
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    George Dorgan: Expect that SNB hikes rates well before the ECB.Swiss inflation will be higher in some years. In times of slow global growth, question is just when. Details http://snbchf.com/about/core-thesis/ - September 18th, 2014 08:01:38 AM
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    Mike Paterson: don't rule it out SWDTM.. - September 18th, 2014 07:57:44 AM
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    Arenoosh: I don't know why traders believed Jordan when he said "negative rates" on the table. SNB does not have the privilege to go negative because the Swiss real estate market is inflated and as they said today "no evidence of decline in mortgage and property imbalances". How the heck can a central bank go negative with that? ECB is not confronting with the real estate problem. SNB needs to pump CHF in the market if they want to keep 1.2000 peg or to come up with something else than tales. - September 18th, 2014 07:48:26 AM
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    so what does this mean?: they aren't doing anything, so why wouldn't the market just try to test 1.20? - September 18th, 2014 07:47:25 AM
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    alex: Still kickin' the can - September 18th, 2014 07:47:00 AM
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    Harry: It seems they have no choice but to act at some stage, I get the impression they are keeping their powder dry. - September 18th, 2014 07:45:39 AM
  • Yohay : August 2014 UK retail sales 0.4% vs 0.4% exp m/m

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    Yohay: More negativity comes from prices. From the report: "However, average store prices fell in August 2014 by 1.2% compared with August 2013, the largest fall since July 2009" I guess all eyes are on Scotland now. - September 18th, 2014 08:39:01 AM
  • Mike Paterson : Trading Ideas - European session 18 Sept

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    Mike Paterson: Thanks Mary - September 18th, 2014 08:38:27 AM
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    Mary: Hi Mike, The E/J is back at an interesting level and might be worth watching. http://www.tradecharting.com/2014/09/18/ej-at-major-resistance-a-pivotal-level/ - September 18th, 2014 08:23:04 AM
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    Peter: With my GBP positions in, they can fend for themselves with the ebbs and flows whilst voting takes place during the day. I'm going to be looking at the Nasdaq 100 for opportunities. The spike up in the Nasdaq 100 and S&P yesterday, wasn't too convincing. Both are resting above the confluence of their 8 & 21 DMAs, so looking to go with a decisive move either side of these moving averages. - September 18th, 2014 07:32:30 AM
  • alex : Who draws the short straw on first ECB governing council vote rotation?

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    alex: ... the feed must go to Schauble too. - September 18th, 2014 08:26:52 AM
  • mart : Scotland referendum ... Could become a failed state ... ! (and a look at their currency options :-D )

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    mart: That's the Neil Ferguson that also said that the Rothchilds didn't take over the UK bond market in the aftermath of Waterloo but really struggled over losses in their investments. Stop quoting this narcissistic liar please. - September 18th, 2014 08:22:41 AM
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    pandu: Interesting days indeed. I am a disinterested Asian observer of this drama. Ferguson's article is well written as usual, but I did not find any clear arguments for his viewpoints. All his statements are merely his opinion, apart from the unconvincing historical references to life in Scotland more than 500 years ago. I'd guess life in all of England was pretty much the same in those days. If Denmark, Netherlands, Belgium, Switzerland, even Romania, Slovenia, Kosovo, Liechtenstein, et al can be viable independent states, surely Scotland has far better chances than any of them to become a successful independent state. Being small is no barrier to being independent and prosperous. - September 18th, 2014 08:05:04 AM
  • gert enlsin : Scotland votes on Thursday 18 September 2014 .... here's the timeline for counting and results

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    gert enlsin: U2 comes from Ireland.... - September 18th, 2014 08:10:45 AM
  • Chase : Just waking up? Run-down of the FOMC decisions and Yellen's conference - plus technical analysis

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    Chase: I'm with you on that one Bud (and clearly we're both short USD), but I do believe the reaction was a little out of kilter. There was no real change in rhetoric, nothing wildly unexpected in terms of forward guidance. But the dollar is bid and that's what we're looking at this morning. - September 18th, 2014 08:02:46 AM
  • Bud Spencer : Swiss 3-month libor target rate held at 0.0-0.25% as exp

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    Bud Spencer: You can even become a shareholder in the Swiss central bank: http://www.six-swiss-exchange.com/shares/security_info_en.html?id=CH0001319265CHF4 A fact, 95% of currency traders are unaware of. - September 18th, 2014 07:50:24 AM
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    Bud Spencer: Mike, SNB is the most active central bank with regards to currency interventions and even currency trading. They are as manipulative as you can be as a central bank. Who else would Hildebrandt, who worked before his announcement for a very well known hedge fund, as head of a central bank? SNB is not a central bank. It is for profit institution. Highly rigged and not trustworthy. - September 18th, 2014 07:47:05 AM
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