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  • ronald : The reason to sell the Canadian dollar isn't retail sales or the BOC decision

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    ronald: adam, i guess now you're in the 1.17-1.19 camp! - October 22nd, 2014 08:35:27 PM
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    Jason: I wonder how long all that cheap NG being generated in the US will last? Possibly the ineptitude of the Canadian politicians could work wonders for Canada if the US dumps all its NG on the world market, depressing prices, then some time later Canada comes in late to the game and gets to sell newly developed resources of NG at substantially higher prices. - October 22nd, 2014 08:27:05 PM
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    sunny: Adam, I have been trying to keep some USD/CAD longs for a long time. btw, since I have been trading equities via CFDs with forex brokers over a year, I'm interested to see your team's posts about SPX. Please let me know if you see a retest of last week's lows. - October 22nd, 2014 08:00:10 PM
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    alex: Instead of importing oil from Libya or other unstable places there's some oil here: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-29/oil-fields-under-olive-groves-offer-italy-economic-boost.html but green tape prefers to make us pay 8$+ a US gallon (we reached 10$). - October 22nd, 2014 07:58:06 PM
  • Bud Spencer : RBNZ's Wheeler: FX rate rises in Asia have generated difficult headwinds

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    Bud Spencer: So, effectively NZD rates are at 3,75-4,00%, Mr. Wheeler? And there is no danger of overshooting inflation when FED, BOJ, ECB and BOE are executing ZIRP policies? Yikes, never ever, isn´t it, Mr. Wheeler? - October 22nd, 2014 08:33:22 PM
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    Bud Spencer: If this is not inflationary, I don´t know what is: The latest figures show property prices across the city have risen an average of 34 per cent since 2011, and in Hobsonville a whopping 65 per cent. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11345050 - October 22nd, 2014 08:11:12 PM
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    Bud Spencer: Hum, here is some research from AMP Capital regarding NZD: http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/10640145/Interest-rate-rise-dollar-fall-predicted - October 22nd, 2014 08:07:15 PM
  • Michael Miller : USD/JPY beginning to slip alongside stocks

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    Michael Miller: I'm joining MS and trying the eur/jpy short again at 135.55. See this daily chart and you'll know why I keep shorting it! Within the daily chart, the moving average technicals look good, but the hourly is a little "so so", but they're looking better. Also, if you look at the weekly chart, there's a 30/55 bearish moving average cross and the indicators are rolling over to the downside, along with price. Weekly MACD, is also bearish. My task is- catching the techs within the daily chart at the point where they're right for weakness, testing that 134.13 low again and going through it. And as this happens, the daily moving average crosses will align correctly, getting the algos and folks that trade like myself, super bear'd up on the cross. ;-) You can see how close the crosses are to be aligned correctly. Whether this is the right moment to test and blow through that 134.13 low, remains to be seen. So far, getting weaker, as I type. We'll see- http://s798.photobucket.com/user/bigmillers/media/EURJPYDaily_zps98b565fe.png.html - October 22nd, 2014 08:00:50 PM
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    Boroskiva: ...I think fading usd/jpy is a sucker bet. - October 22nd, 2014 06:55:18 PM
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    Adam Button: Gotta hold 80 - October 22nd, 2014 06:49:27 PM
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    Adam Button: Crude's not looking good, that bounce just didn't come. Watching $80 closely. - October 22nd, 2014 06:46:49 PM
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    Adam Button: It's a volatile world. But for today I'm just talking about a little retracement. - October 22nd, 2014 06:45:55 PM
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    Ricardo: Crude gaps down on the 1 5 15 and 30 min chart. Nice place to limit risk and get long. - October 22nd, 2014 06:43:17 PM
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    Boroskiva: This whole "we feel your pain", "OMG we could be next" thing is really geting a bit old. But then, whatever moves prices... right? - October 22nd, 2014 06:33:40 PM
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    LT: Hi Adam, last week when suddenly the world was going into negative growth and everyone was coming with a new explanation to large sell off in stocks and only in 2 days later the world growth prospects changed and investors cheered .. buying stocks heavily. And today you are hinting at risk aversion? what has suddenly happened? - October 22nd, 2014 05:58:35 PM
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    Ricardo: Adam Thoughts on crude please... crude inventories came better than expected. 10:30 USD Low Crude Oil Inventories 7.111M 2.686M 8.923M - October 22nd, 2014 05:54:11 PM
  • William P : CTV reports that soldier shot at War Memorial has died.

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    William P: I'm saddened by what happens in Ottawa today. Canada is a peace loving country. These soldiers are peace keepers for the UN. Why they have to die? - October 22nd, 2014 07:55:22 PM
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    miki: senseless tragedy. we canadians are the prematurely insane being fed pablum by our government - October 22nd, 2014 06:16:29 PM
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    Ovidiu: Oh! I hoped it isn't true... I have no words to express my regret... - October 22nd, 2014 05:43:51 PM
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    Big Vern: Puts trading into perspective. RIP. - October 22nd, 2014 05:42:45 PM
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    Ricardo: Game change for Canada - October 22nd, 2014 05:38:44 PM
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    Werner: May he RIP - October 22nd, 2014 05:38:02 PM
  • anon : New Zealand dollar traders - RBNZ Wheeler to speak on October 23 (NZ time)

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    anon: how will this affect nzd? the topic doesn't seem to be anything related to mon pol - October 22nd, 2014 07:37:55 PM
  • alex : Goldman Sachs: Here's when Australian dollar weakness is coming

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    alex: Buy AUD - October 22nd, 2014 07:12:43 PM
  • Greg Michalowski : (Video) A technical look at 5 currencies in 6 minutes

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    Greg Michalowski: You are welcome @Big Vern... The thing to remember is.. I look for clues from a static point in time. Clues that will define and limit risk. Then if it works, I manage. If it doesn't I get out. Also while the trade is developing the world is changing not only from a fundamental perspective but also from a price action perspective. For example, yesterday I was looking for the 1.6121 level to hold in the GBPUSD, and it did, but it only got to 1.6135 after that, it took time. Having that happen, allows patience because it was the right price to buy, but it did not do what I expected it to do. I thought 1.6192 would be where it might go off of that low. Now it might not have been by the end of the day, but I saw it as something to build off of. It did not happen, so I got out at 1.6118 (check GBPUSD posts from yesterday). We don't have to be right all the time, but I don't want to risk a lot if what I think might happen, does not happen. I work to find levels that I "see" are important and feel the "market sees it too" . I then think about fundamental (don't always express it - it does not matter as the price is my primary reason). Risk is really around the level. "This level should hold because A, B, C. If it does not hold, get out." Because I think the level is important, I look for energy around that level. Is every 100 hour MA important? No. Look at the AUDUSD hourly chart...It is a mess. However, I am paying attention to what happens around the 100 hour MA, because the market does tend to... - October 22nd, 2014 06:59:15 PM
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    Big Vern: Thanks for taking the time to respond Greg. Really appreciate it and am enjoying learning from your posts. - October 22nd, 2014 06:21:39 PM
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    Greg Michalowski: @Big Vern I give the benefit of the doubt to the sell side as the sellers forced the market down, the price fell below the 100 and 200 bar MA in the process and the price rise has been "contained". However, some one who went long below on the support trend line is ok too. Add the increased concern and risk from the situation in Ottawa (should be CAD dollar negative) and the idea for a trend like continuation may not occur. Let's face it, the price held the ceiling. It held the floor. There are bullish balls and bearish balls in the air (fundamentally and technically - remember retail sales were not all that great) So I can't really say, it is the "trade of the year". However, I am about defining and limiting the risk from the technicals and so far, the sellers are keeping more control. - October 22nd, 2014 06:17:15 PM
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    Big Vern: Great analysis Greg. Could you clarify though, do you see USDCAD heading lower over the coming trading sessions as you say the limit of the retracement from today's falls ideally would be around 1.1237? - October 22nd, 2014 05:55:33 PM
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    Ricardo: Outstanding analysis Greg, - October 22nd, 2014 05:36:23 PM
  • Greg Michalowski : Forex Technical Trading: AUDUSD is a mess

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    Greg Michalowski: Indeed...I see the support..Not to mention the low from earlier this year is holding up. For the purpose of this site and for the vast majority of the traders here, the patience is not as great for such macro views. Some may have them. Most don't. Am I more short term then? My approach starts in the short term and then if the market moves in the direction, I move into managing the trade. I believe all positions start with a trade and then turn into something longer term. Putting it another way, if I said buy at 0.8900 (I assume you meant 0.8900 and not 0.9800) and 0.8800 and 0.8700, I would not be the most popular when the price is at 0.8650 ; ) Let me say this... if the price goes above the trend line in my "mess" and stays above, my glasses are more bullish and if it ends up toward 1.0000, the technicals I look at will be bullish (I don't use oscillators as trends are where the most money is made and lost). I could become more bullish if the 0.8745 level holds on a move below the 100 hour MA in my mess (i.e. at the floor ares). I am more flexible and quite frankly, I hope to heck you are right because nothing beats a trending market. In the mean time within the mess, I will be looking for spots to define and - limit risk because it is a mess and if it works, I feel good. If it does not I get out. I don't suggest overleveraging now. There will be time for that on breaks. Again, thank you... - October 22nd, 2014 06:38:39 PM
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    scott: Cheers Alex! Gregg, let me share with you if I may, how we view AUDUSD. While your "spot on" that AUDUSD of late statically looks a mess. After all, we love a good pattern, H&S etc. However, lets look at AUDUSD with a wider lens, let's view the weekly candles from this historical basis. We are looking the AUDUSD November 2008 bounce that ran up from .6020 to a very nice high of about 1.10 on July 2011. Now, if we use the Fibo retracement from that amazing run down to a 50% retrace that would put us at about .8550. We like this statistical data point based on our view that AUDUSD is still in a upward bias. As AUDUSD had such a long and fast run up, we can easily see a 50% retrace in AUDUSD as the "catching it's breath" point. If you view AUDUSD from our point of view, we see a long term bias towards upward mobility and the mess of late looks much better from a weekly candle point of view. As AUD USD is such a profitable carry trade, the wind is at our back here to go long. Of course, we are long from .9800 averaging down every 100 pips or so and we are patient my friend. Our trade of the decade will be this pair when she hits parity and beyond. Until then we will hold and pocket a nice carry while waiting. - October 22nd, 2014 05:51:29 PM
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    alex: Cheers Scott! - October 22nd, 2014 03:20:06 PM
  • anand : Nelson Bunker Hunt: The man who made one of the most audacious trades in history has died

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    anand: Adam what are you smoking in your pipe today? How was that "one of the great trades of all time"? He bankrupted himself after running the price up! You could make the argument that if the authorities hadn't got involved and forced him to sell he would have profited from squeezing the futures market (as he had bought with his syndicate a large % of physical). However that isn't a trade ... its market manipulation. - October 22nd, 2014 06:10:39 PM
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    RossT: Thought I'd share my Nelson Bunker Hunt memories from that fateful period in 1980 when silver collapsed. I'd just joined Bache NY helping to set up on of the first non-bank FX desks. Our trading room was right next to the commodities dept. in the basement of 100 Gold St, downtown NYC. The Hunt brothers had enormous positions on with Bache and of course the Street was very nervous to do any biz with us, once the story broke. We were doing what would now be called agency biz with some of the first hedge funds and CTA's and took no market risk. As a result we had offsetting positions on with various banks on behalf of our clients. At one point we had the credit officers from all the New York banks jammed into our little dealing room demanding to see our positions - Bankers, Irving, Chase, Chemical, ManHan, Citi etc. The upshot was that a colleague and I spent our early morning hours running around with bank checks to other banks so that our currency payments would get released. I wonder if the world realized how close it might have come to a 'Herstatt' style problem if one us of had got mugged? I recall the head of commodities coming back from a creditor meeting at some swanky NY hotel with NBH where he allegedly said ' Boys, Sorry, but I can;t pay you. There's cookies and soda in the next room". Those were the days..... - October 22nd, 2014 05:35:12 PM
  • Bud Spencer : Kyle Bass: The largest position we have is short yen

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    Bud Spencer: I recall Kyle Bass calling for every reasonable Japanese government bond holder to short JGB´s. I think, he tried to short JGB´s several times, until he capitulated and found out that the BOJ is in total control of JGB market. Otherwise, he is a good hedge fund manager and returning some decent profits to his investors. - October 22nd, 2014 05:47:05 PM
  • vlad : Forex Technical Trading: EURUSD extends to new lows.

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    vlad: regarding fib. extensions, think this a good example of take profit targets, etc. http://s8.postimg.org/6utxkkbxx/eurusd_M15.jpg drew it with bottom at 1.2742 instead of 46 or whatever was the low during NY open yesterday because 1.2742 is the level that matters in the end. - October 22nd, 2014 05:37:22 PM
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    Greg Michalowski: ; ) happy for you @peter.... Good job - October 22nd, 2014 05:29:36 PM
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    peter: Trade complete, 10 pips in the bag. The market was grinding so it was quite a large trade. Cheers Greg. - October 22nd, 2014 05:10:21 PM
  • Ovidiu : Live updates: Shots fired at Canadian war memorial

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    Ovidiu: I hope the soldier and all the injured persons will be okay and all those guilty for this madness will pe punished. All my best thoughts for Canada and its wonderful people. - October 22nd, 2014 05:28:45 PM
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    Ricardo: CBC News Alerts ‏@CBCAlerts 10m10 minutes ago Conservative caucus told Canadian soldier shot at War Memorial has died, Soldier has not been named, but was a reservist based in #Hamilton. - October 22nd, 2014 05:21:48 PM
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    Ricardo: CNN reports the soldier shot at the memorial has died - October 22nd, 2014 05:19:51 PM
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    Sheep: Where does it say it was ISIS first and foremost, follow the herd, feed off the feed being fed to you, Manav? Why jump the gun, isn't there a due process and evidence? Whether it's ISIS or Hitler or whoever...why have rules if you can't stick by them? Pleb, sensationalism is your fodder. - October 22nd, 2014 05:10:52 PM
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    Manav: Terrible! These ISIS supports should be shot at sight without any hesitation... - October 22nd, 2014 03:26:40 PM
  • vlad : If the ECB buys corporate bonds, how much can it buy?

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    vlad: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-22/someone-didnt-do-math-ecbs-corporate-bond-purchasing-trial-balloon ok, so that table is pretty much dead wrong(thank God someone did the calculation in my place...) - October 22nd, 2014 05:11:28 PM
  • Greg Michalowski : Forex Technical Analysis: EURUSD looking like the top is set

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    Greg Michalowski: Thank you Ricardo ; ) - October 22nd, 2014 04:47:13 PM
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    Ricardo: Top was set alright! Great call (techs) Greg http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2014/10/21/forex-technical-analysis-eurusd-looking-like-the-top-is-set-october-21-2014/ - October 22nd, 2014 03:33:13 PM
  • jimm : Shooting footage from inside Canadian parliament

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    jimm: as if the world has not enuff troubles,these hooligans go around creating even more havoc? sad. - October 22nd, 2014 04:30:57 PM
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    Yet Another Ryan: Looks like the RCMP stopped it before many people were injured. Those cops in parliament were heroic. Ran straight at the shooter and killed him before he could do any more damage. - October 22nd, 2014 03:52:41 PM
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    Ricardo: It seems that whoever perpetuated this attack planned the timing perfectly. - October 22nd, 2014 03:38:04 PM
  • Ricardo : BOC's Poloz says exports responding to lower CAD

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    Ricardo: FEAR takes over Canada - October 22nd, 2014 04:22:01 PM
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