The number came in at -58, worse than the expected -55, recording the sharpest fall on record.

USDJPY  jumps 20 pips.

DI for Non-Manufacturers -31, weaker than the expected -25.

There is now a possibility that the BOJ will take further steps to ease monetary conditions and cut growth forecasts.

Tankan Survey of Enterprises in Japan at 2350GMT. Forecast for Big Manufacturers Diffusion Index for Q1 is -55 vs a previous reading of  -24.

Australian Retail Trade for Feb out at 0030GMT. Month-on-month, forecast is for drop of 0.5% vs January’s reading of +0.2%.

Australian Building Approvals for Feb at 0030GMT. Forecast is +2% vs January’s drop of 3.7%.

A small rise of 1.7 points in March in the Australian PMI saw it move from 31.7 in Feb to a reading of 33.4. Its still very much under the 50 level suggesting that economic conditions in Australia may not have yet bottomed out.

Just heard some GBPJPY buying went thru about 20 minutes ago. This could lend support to GBPUSD. Hearing some stops above 1.4400, which could act as a trigger for a run higher.

Morning all,

The buying just under 68c yesterday was strong enough for a run to 6970. This morning we see AUDUSD coming off in tandem with NZDUSD after the Bollard comments.

Talking to traders around town, they are sellers towards 70c and buyers in the 6870-90 zone. Traders will be happy to play AUDUSD from the short side this morning selling into small rallies. I would say 6880-6950 range will contain the AUDUSD for the next few hours.

Comments from the NZ reserve bank governor that NZ rates are unsustainably high sent the NZD/USD crashing almost 150 pips and this in turn dragged the AUD/USD down from .6950 to .6910.

Don’t believe everything you hear today as somebody might be having you on!

The CHF is making a comeback and it’s imminent demise, which I have been forecasting, is obviously greatly exaggerated. EUR/CHF is back under 1.5100 and no sign of the SNB. Longs will be getting nervous.

AUD/USD made a nice rally off the hourly double bottom at .6775. Looks like a .68/.70 range to me. EUR/USD is well supported by Sovereign buying in the 1.31’s but I am not overly convinced yet that the EUR is ripe for another bull run. GBP I still like although I have no rational explanation for why it should rally, apart from being oversold.

The JPY will dominate the session again in Asia. I still believe in a 92-102 consolidation range for USD/JPY and I will only contemplate trading it if we get close to either extremity.

Good luck today.

• Canadian GDP falls 0.7% m/m in January
• Case- Shiller home price index falls 19% y/y in January
• Chicago PMI slips to 31.4, lowest since 1980
• US consumer confidence: 26.0 in March from 25.3 in February
• French Fin Min Lagarde: “We need strong dollar” , currencies may need own summit
• Hong Kong PMI rises fourth straight month
• White House says dollar to remain global reserve currency
• US shares rise but close off best levels of session; S&P up 1.2%

USD/JPY resumed its rally today, working through important resistance at 98.85 and overcoming the 200-day moving average at 99.27 briefly. Prices gave ground late in the session as US shares closed well below intraday highs and the market looked set to close below the 200-day average. Bids are eyed on dips to 98.65/85 near-term though stops are building in the 98.50 region.

EUR/USD was choppy at month-end with lots of buying in anticipation of big month end fixing flows and then plenty of selling when those flows proved to be underwhelming. EUR/USD dipped to 1.3226 in New York before rebounding to the 1.3290s where it spent the later part of the afternoon. 1.3342 was the early New York high.

AUD and GBP were underpinned by month-end demand from investors and a reduction in risk aversion. AUD ends at 0.6950 after reaching 0.6970 during afternoon trade. AUD/JPY was a feature. Cable spent most of the US session on the 1.43 handle, topping out at 1.4376.

In case you feared that Obama or Geithner were about to sell the dollar down the river, the White House makes clear that the dollar  is now and ever shall be the world reserve currency. The breadth and strength of the US economy is unmatched, according to Obama’s spokesman.

The President has just landed in London where he will be greeted like a rockstar but his policies will be broadly ignored. Ironically, his predecessor experienced nearly the polar opposite reaction.

Payrolls are right around the corner and a correct progknostication can win you the comfort of fine combed cotton and genuine sink-screened graphics. Just enter your guess for the change in nonfarm payrolls into the comment thread here.

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