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ForexLive US wrap-up: Choppy at year-end

  • US weekly jobless claims fall to 432,000 from 454,000
  • NY NAPM dips to 59.7 in December from 62.9 in November
  • Tear gas used on opposition protests in Tehran
  • Chicago PMI revised lower just one day after release: now 57.9 from 60.0
  • US 10-year notes reach 3.88% yield intraday
  • Oil brushes $80 on Iran, US growth outlook

EUR/USD was quite choppy in US trade but it spent the bulk of the morning giving back earlier gains. It looks as though traders jumped on reports that there would be heavy demand for EUR/USD and interest to sell USD/JPY at the 16:00 fixing. By the time the fixing rolled around, many had already been squeezed out of there positions. EUR/USD fell to 1.4308 in the run-up to the fixing but bounced to around 1.4347 as 16:00 GMT passed. It spent the balance of the shortened session on the defensive between 1.4715 and 1.4750.

USD/JPY shrugged off reports of fix-related selling and made new highs at 93.10 at the fixing. It extended gains to 93.14 in early afternoon where large offers were seen via EBS.

Cable was insanely volatile, rallying a full 400 pips from yesterday’s lows before settling around 1.6150. 30 pip random swings were plentiful.

AUD held up well with traders extrapolating US economic strength to mean global growth will get a boost in early 2010. AUD/JPY was a big mover to the topside today. AUD ends at 89.80 after trading as high as .09008 several times in London this morning.  USD/CAD ends near session lows of 1.0465 on growth hopes for 2010.

All the best to the ForexLive community. All of us here wish you a happy and prosperous 2010.

By Jamie Coleman  || December 31, 2009 at 18:15 GMT
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Here’s one to polish off 2009

The folks at Jib-Jab send off 2009 in style.

By Jamie Coleman  || December 31, 2009 at 17:56 GMT
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Heavy offers in USD/JPY around 93.15

Traders report very lumpy offers in the 93.14/15 area, with about $250 mln on offer there. Looks like we may just range trade for the balance of the session, with any luck.

Markets are razor thin and taking short-term punts in this market looks to be a fools errand.

I’m winding things up early today, at 18:00 GMT as there is very little to analyze. Back to full strength on Monday.

By Jamie Coleman  || December 31, 2009 at 17:11 GMT
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Dust settling but dollar still strong

EUR/USD got a mild boost at the 16:00 GMT fixing but it had to rebound from session lows to get to the 1.4345/50 area. We’ve now eased back to the 1.4320s despite a downward revision to the Chicago ISM data released just a day ago. CNBC says there was some sort of annual revision which took the number down to 58.7 from 60.0.

USD/JPY is holding onto all its gains and Cable is pretty firm given its move from 1.5825 just a day ago. It now trades at 1.6170 in very thin (and sure to get thinner) trade.

AUD/USD is holding up well amid USD strength as global growth estimates are revised higher amid hopes of accelerating US growth in early 2010.  Couple that with fears that Japan will have trouble financing its ballooning debt are helping spark macro-shifts into AUD/JPY.

By Jamie Coleman  || December 31, 2009 at 16:41 GMT
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Well that was fun…

The fixing has come and gone and there was some decent fireworks headed into the setting. EUR/USD fixed somewhere around 1.4347, I’d guess and is now lower, at 1.4337. USD/JPY made a new high for the move at 93.10 during the 16:00-16:01 fixing period…It trades still above 93.00, at 93.05.

Looks like there was an error in Chicago PMI with the employment index looking like the culprit. It was revised down to 47.5 from the 51.2 reported yesterday. The headline index was dragged down to 58.7 as a result.

By Jamie Coleman  || December 31, 2009 at 16:08 GMT
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A boo-boo in Chicago PMI?

Reuters is running a headline saying the December Chicago PMI has been revised to 58.7 versus the 60 reported yesterday. No story yet, but this is the first time I’ve ever seen a revision a day after a release. More when it is available…

By Jamie Coleman  || December 31, 2009 at 16:03 GMT
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Latest chatter

  • Looking for AUD/USD sellers to offset unmatched buy orders
  • Looking for USD/JPY sellers to offset unmatched buy orders

Update at 15:53: Brokers now looking for EUR/USD sellers..have unmatched buyers…

By Jamie Coleman  || December 31, 2009 at 15:50 GMT
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USD/JPY clears 93.00; 93.3 next resistance

USD/JPY has broken clear of 93.00, rising to 93.05 so far. 93.30 is next resistance, a top from early September.

12-31-jpy

By Jamie Coleman  || December 31, 2009 at 15:34 GMT
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Fixing chatter picking up

  • Brokers are looking for sellers of GBP/USD (they have more buyers than sellers)
  • They are looking for sellers of USD/JPY
  • They are looking for buyers of EUR/USD, belying earlier talk of EUR/USD demand at the 16:00 GMT fixing.
By Jamie Coleman  || December 31, 2009 at 15:30 GMT
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USD/JPY closing in on 93.00

The greenback continues its march higher. approaching the 93.00 level. Barriers are rumored at that level and in excess of $250 mln is on the offer via EBS at that level.

By Jamie Coleman  || December 31, 2009 at 15:28 GMT
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