The data & my initial take is here: Australia data - Retail sales for June: +0.3% m/m (expected +0.2% m/m)
Via Westpac now:
- Sales ... extending the strong rebound in Apr-May from a weather affected contraction in Feb-Mar.
- Annual sales growth has now lifted back to 3.8%yr, the strongest pace since Apr 2016 although some of this momentum will clearly fade as weather effects drop out of the picture
- For Q2 as a whole, real retail sales, i.e. 'volumes' rose 1.5% as the weather effects rebound coincided with aggressive price discounting.
- The quarterly gain was the strongest since June 2009 when aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus were giving a major boost to household cash flows
- June ... detail points to fairly broad based strength
- Q2 gain was even broader
- Overall this is a significant upside surprise
- Overall this points to upside risk to our current 0.8%qtr forecast for Q2 consumption, with an increase closer to 1% now looking more likely
