Westpac Melbourne institute Leading Index - it does not tend to move the forex upon release.
- 6-month annualised growth comes in at 1.3% (from 0.68% in the January release)
- the 6-month annualised growth indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future
Westpac comments:
Index is well above trend indicating improving prospects for growth in the first half of 2018
strong headline result for the Leading Index in terms of its components ... disproportionate impact of international factors
- US industrial production (0.53 ppts) and commodity prices (0.40 ppts) explain 0.93 ppts of the overall 1.30 ppts reading
It is disappointing that only 0.18 ppts are contributed by the "domestic" components of the Index - consumer and employment confidence; dwelling approvals and hours worked
- Of some concern is that recent prints of the Index have shown a marked deterioration in the contribution of the hours worked series (-0.19 ppt's in February)
These points are further highlighted in the movements in the Index over the last six months.
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This graph from prior to today's data release:
Also from prior to today ... Westpac comment:
- Overall, the Index is still pointing to above trend growth momentum in the early part of 2018.
